Financial Futures Core View - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, providing funds for the federal government until January 30, 2026, easing the government shutdown deadlock. If the US government resumes normal operations as expected and the core economic data is weak, the support for the US dollar may weaken, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.14 this week [3]. - China's import and export data in October declined, but there's no need to worry excessively as it was affected by short - term factors. The export growth rate in the fourth quarter may decline, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [3]. - The bond market is in a short - term shock situation, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [4]. Market Conditions - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 at 16:30, down 32 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1178 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0866, down 10 basis points from the previous trading day [2]. - On Tuesday, the bond futures opened higher,冲高 in the morning, then fell back, and maintained a narrow - range shock in the afternoon. The DR001 rose to 1.51% [4]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are running at a high level in the short term. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2/ounce, up 0.27%; the SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 948.88 yuan/gram, up 2.67%. The market is concerned about the release of US data [5]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The US government shutdown is expected to end, and the market believes the probability of a December interest rate cut has increased, boosting copper prices. The Comex copper closed at $5.07/pound, up 0.08% [9]. - Aluminum: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices recently. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10][11]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are in a high - level narrow - range shock. The smelting end is short of ore, and the TC in November has dropped significantly. It is expected to be strong in the short term [12]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the pressure on the fundamentals and the spot market is prominent. The price of nickel ore may be strong in the short term, and the price of nickel iron has been continuously adjusted [13][14]. - Tin: Bulls entered the market at night, and the Shanghai tin broke through upwards. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [15][16]. - Lead: The lead price is in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply is tight, but the import window is open, and it is expected to gradually return to balance [18][20]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock. The short - term kinetic energy is weak, and the long - term is still under pressure [26][28]. - LPG: The cost has risen, and the domestic LPG market is in a strong pattern. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand of the PDH end has increased [28][29]. - PTA - PX: Affected by the "anti - involution" rumor, the PTA price has rebounded from a low level. The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA is in an oversupply situation [30][33]. - MEG - bottle chips: The ethylene glycol is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the demand is stable. The long - term is still in a weak situation [33][34]. - PP: The PP market is in a bottom - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has improved slightly during the "Double 11" period [36][37]. - PE: The PE market is in a low - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited [38][40]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are still falling. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the de - stocking pressure is large [41][42]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The rubber price is in a pressure - bearing shock and moving up. The downstream demand has certain support, but the inventory pressure is large [43]. - Urea: The export quota has increased, and the short - term price is supported. The industry is expected to maintain a high daily output level in November [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The soda ash is under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation. The glass is in a low - level game, and the caustic soda production is gradually recovering, with increasing market pressure [46][49]. - Pulp and offset paper: The pulp and offset paper futures prices are in a high - level shock. The supply of pulp is expected to decrease in the short term, and the cost of offset paper is expected to rise [49][50]. - Propylene: The propylene price is in a rebound. The supply is still loose, and the demand is affected by the PP market [50][52]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The policy may affect the long - term supply. The short - term is still based on the fundamentals, and the price is expected to be supported during the peak season [53]. - Oilseeds: The market is waiting for the USDA report. The import of soybeans is mainly from Brazil, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is high. The rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand [53][54]. - Oils: The price of palm oil is expected to gradually recover. The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the supply of rapeseed oil is still a concern [55]. - Soybean No.1: The soybean No.1 is in a high - level consolidation [55]. - Corn and starch: The corn and starch prices are rising. The supply of corn is sufficient, but the selling pressure has been released, and the demand is increasing [55][57]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a shock. The new cotton output is high, and the downstream demand is average [57][58]. - Sugar: The sugar price is waiting for the Brazilian production data. The Brazilian sugar export in October increased, and the production in the second half of October is expected to increase [58][59]. - Eggs: The futures price of eggs is falling, and the market expectation is difficult to be falsified [60].
金融期货早评-20251112
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-12 02:30