固收专题报告：利率三季度货政报告公布，宽松可期

Report Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The tone of the Q3 Monetary Policy Report is friendly. With economic pressure rising, interest rates may hit new lows under the expectation of monetary easing [3]. - The "opportunistic" constraint that has lasted for a year shows a weakening tendency, and the report adds a cross - cycle statement, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose [3]. - The report does not mention the issue of fund idling and arbitrage, and the statement about funds is more optimistic. The DR007 central tendency may return to fluctuate around the 7 - day OMO policy rate [3]. - Emphasizing interest rate comparison, if the entity financing cost is to be reduced, bond market interest rates should also be lowered. This is beneficial for bonds [3]. - Future credit performance may be weak. The monetary policy framework continues to improve, and the intermediate target shifts from quantity - based to price - based [3]. - The central bank emphasizes the implementation of policy rates. Since May, the policy rate has been stable, but the long - term interest rate has adjusted. There may be room for long - term bonds to decline [3]. Summary by Directory 1. The "opportunistic" constraint that has lasted for a year shows a weakening tendency - The report deletes the statement about adjusting policy implementation based on economic and financial situations and replaces it with using various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, adding a cross - cycle adjustment statement [6]. 2. The report does not mention the issue of fund idling and arbitrage, and the statement about funds is more optimistic - Deleting the prevention of fund idling and emphasizing relatively loose social financing conditions indicates a more optimistic tone for funds [8]. - The operation time of the repurchase tool is specified, and the DR007 central tendency may return to fluctuate around the 7 - day OMO policy rate [11][12]. 3. Emphasizing interest rate comparison, bond market interest rates should be lower - The requirement of not issuing loans with after - tax interest rates lower than the same - term treasury bond yields mainly restricts the lower limit of loan interest rates. LPR is difficult to cut alone, which is beneficial for bonds [17]. - If the entity financing cost is to be reduced, bond market interest rates should also be lowered [18]. 4. The intermediate target continues to adjust, shifting from quantity - based to price - based - The Q3 Monetary Policy Report highlights changes in the financial supply - side structure, and credit performance in October may be weak [19]. - The monetary policy will gradually淡化 the focus on quantity targets and shift to price - based regulation [21]. 5. Interest rates should fluctuate around the policy rate without significant deviation - Since May, the policy rate has been stable, but the long - term interest rate has adjusted. There may be room for long - term bonds to decline if economic pressure increases [23]. - The report emphasizes that short - term money market interest rates should fluctuate around the policy rate to ensure the effectiveness of interest rate transmission [23]. 7. Appendix: Comparison of the Q3 Monetary Policy Report - The Q3 report shows that the global economic growth momentum remains weak, and China's economy continues to make progress steadily. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [28]. - The monetary policy will use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and the focus on preventing fund idling is removed [28].