银行视角看政策：25Q3 货币政策报告的 4 点关注
CMS·2025-11-12 02:43

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights four key points from the 2025 Q3 monetary policy report released by the central bank, focusing on loan interest rates, the shift in monetary policy language, the relationship between monetary aggregates, and the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Loan Interest Rates - As of September 2025, the weighted average loan interest rate is 3.24%, down 5 basis points from the previous month. The average interest rate for general loans is 3.67%, down 2 basis points, while the personal housing loan rate remains stable at 3.06%. The corporate loan rate is 3.14%, down 8 basis points. The excess reserve ratio is 1.4%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1][12]. Monetary Policy Language - The monetary policy language has shifted from "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments" to "doing a good job in both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments." The outlook does not mention the likelihood of reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions, indicating a stable capital market and improving inflation trends [2]. Financial Aggregates - The report emphasizes that the current high level of financial data means future monetary policy effects will focus more on "price" rather than "quantity." Without real demand and fiscal policy support, the expansion of base money may not effectively translate into broad money supply growth [3]. Interest Rate Relationships - The central bank aims to ensure that banks do not issue loans at post-tax rates lower than the yields of government bonds of the same maturity. This is to maintain a reasonable interest rate relationship and support banks in stabilizing their net interest margins, thereby expanding the space for counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments [4][5].