光大证券晨会速递-20251112

Macro Analysis - The 2025 Q3 monetary policy execution report affirms the resilience of the domestic economy and alleviates concerns about domestic inflation and global economic recession. The report suggests that monetary policy may increase its easing efforts marginally due to a slowdown in economic growth [1] - The report emphasizes the need for "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy, indicating a potential increase in the central bank's bond-buying operations in the secondary market [1] - There is a focus on the implementation of policies to support personal credit repair, which will be crucial for credit policy [1] Bond Market Analysis - In Q3 2025, major market indices saw an increase, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 9.8%. The total scale of convertible bonds held by funds increased by 43.79 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [2] - The electric power equipment sector saw significant increases in convertible bond holdings, with the average yield of convertible bond funds at 13.67%, which is weaker than the Wind All A Index but stronger than the China Convertible Bond Index [2] Industry Research - The electronic communication industry is expected to benefit from optimistic AI computing power trends, with leading companies having secure valuations. The report highlights the growth potential in the storage and semiconductor sectors [4] - The report indicates that both North American and domestic computing power markets are likely to continue benefiting from these trends [4] Company Research - For Jin Hong Gas (688106.SH), the report projects a decline in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 168 million yuan (down 43.3%), 260 million yuan (down 32.1%), and 350 million yuan (down 22.2%) respectively. The company is expected to benefit from the steady progress of large on-site gas production projects [5] - Guanggang Gas (688548.SH) maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 299 million yuan, 378 million yuan, and 472 million yuan respectively. The company is well-positioned in the electronic bulk and helium gas sectors [7] - He Yuan Gas (002971.SZ) also maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and adds a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 102 million yuan, 111 million yuan, and 121 million yuan respectively, focusing on the development of a centralized production base for electronic gases and chemicals [8] - Xingyuan Materials (300568.SZ) reports a year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 172 million yuan (down 69.6%), 422 million yuan (down 38.9%), and 606 million yuan respectively. The company remains optimistic about its future as a leader in the lithium battery separator industry [9]