国新国证期货早报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 11, 2025 - A-share market declined with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4002.76, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03% to 13289.01, and ChiNext Index down 1.40% to 3134.32. Trading volume was 19936 billion, a decrease of 1809 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4652.17, down 42.88 [2] - The weighted coke index closed at 1717.6, down 59.5; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1231.8 yuan, down 40.7 [2][3] - Palm oil futures rose 0.92% to 8770, with a high of 8850 and a low of 8678 [5] - Shanghai copper futures rose 0.35% to 86630 yuan/ton [5] - Iron ore futures rose 0.2% to 763 yuan [5] - Asphalt futures rose 0.56% to 3050 yuan [5] - Rebar (rb2601) closed at 3025 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil (hc2601) at 3242 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina (ao2601) closed at 2816 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum (al2601) at 21665 yuan/ton [7] 2. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Terminal consumption is in the off-season, steel inventory pressure is increasing, and steel mills maintain a just-in-time procurement rhythm. However, rising coking costs have reduced coking profits, leading coke enterprises to push for a fourth price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [4] - Coking coal: Environmental restrictions in Wuhai are still strict, and coal mine production expansion is slow. Although Shanxi's overproduction governance is in the expected stage, actual production control measures have not significantly increased [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected end of the US government shutdown improved market sentiment. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher. Analysts expect a 8.1% increase in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central-south region in the second half of October to 2942 million tons, and a 7.8% increase in sugar production to 192 million tons [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures adjusted due to technical factors after a sharp rise. As of November 9, the total inventory in Qingdao ports increased by 0.18 million tons to 44.95 million tons, with a 0.40% increase. Bonded warehouse inventory decreased by 0.74% to 6.78 million tons, and general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 38.17 million tons [4] Palm Oil - From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and production decreased by 2.16% [5] Shanghai Copper - Supply shortages in mines and strong Chinese terminal consumption support copper prices. The price is oscillating at a high level due to macro - sentiment, with a bullish technical pattern [5] Cotton - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract on the night of November 11 was 13535 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 325 lots. On November 10, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.15 - 6.35 yuan/kg [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased. Due to increased steel mill losses and maintenance, pig iron production has declined for 5 consecutive periods. The iron ore price is in a short - term oscillating trend [5] Asphalt - Asphalt production capacity utilization decreased, and inventory continued to decline. With weak terminal demand due to cold weather, the price is oscillating [5] Steel - Seasonal off - season and a weak real estate market have led to weak steel demand in November. As steel mill losses increase, maintenance and production cuts are intensifying. Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [6] Alumina - Supply has not seen large - scale production cuts, and new capacity is expected. Although trade and electrolytic aluminum procurement support the spot price, the current fundamentals lack positive factors. The price is undervalued [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Winter environmental protection may affect some enterprises' operations, but production changes are expected to be small. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline in November. High - level price oscillations, environmental restrictions, and weak demand will limit price increases [7]