“波动”已结束；高盛资金流动专家称“今年的圣诞反弹仍将上演”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the stock market, suggesting that the "Santa Rally" is expected to occur this year [18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent market fluctuations are viewed as adjustments rather than a significant downturn, with capital flows remaining positive for the U.S. stock market [1][3]. - Strong seasonal trends and robust capital inflows, along with a persistent retail demand, are expected to support a market rebound by year-end [2][24]. - Historical data suggests that narrow market breadth, while concerning, has often preceded positive returns in the medium to long term [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Breadth - The S&P market breadth remains narrow, over one standard deviation below the average, but has shown slight improvement, supporting the rationale for strategic rotation rather than structural market concerns [4][6]. Capital Flows - Global equity funds saw significant net inflows of $29 billion, with U.S. equity funds driven entirely by domestic demand, particularly in technology sectors [13]. Risk Appetite - Despite a slight cooling in market sentiment, the risk appetite indicator remains at the one-year average level, indicating that the recent sell-off does not reflect a significant decline in risk appetite [11]. Buybacks - Approximately 90% of S&P 500 companies are currently in their buyback window, with expectations of significant buyback activity leading up to the end of the year [20][23]. Retail Demand - Retail demand remains exceptionally strong, with equities representing the highest allocation in investor portfolios at 52%, suggesting continued positive performance in the stock market [24]. Historical Performance - Historical trends indicate that when the S&P 500 experiences a decline in the first week of November after a strong performance, the average return by December 31 is typically positive [35].