原油：反弹或有限，空单持有

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the oil industry but suggests that the rebound of crude oil may be limited and recommends holding short positions [1]. 2. Core View - The rebound of crude oil may be limited, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Section International Crude Oil - WTI December crude oil futures rose $0.91 per barrel, or 1.51%, to $61.04 per barrel; Brent January crude oil futures rose $1.10 per barrel, or 1.72%, to $65.16 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 9.70 yuan per barrel, or 2.11%, to 468.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various types of crude oil, including Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are mostly closed. This reflects factors such as tight Middle - East supply, high freight rates, and sufficient supply in the Atlantic Basin [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Windows for Forties, Arab Extra Light, and Cabinda are closed, while those for Saharan Blend and Urals are open. The opening of the Urals window is an abnormal situation due to deep discounts and demand from complex refineries in the US East, though actual trade is restricted by sanctions [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, and Saharan Blend are closed, while those for Azeri Light and Bonny Light are open. This is related to factors like the price difference between Brent and WTI and freight costs [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk are all closed. The deep discount of Urals crude due to sanctions suppresses the economic viability of other similar crude oils in this region [7]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Windows for Murban, Dubai, and WTI MEH are closed, while those for Bonny Light and Eagle Ford are open. The opening of these windows is affected by factors such as regional supply tightness, price structures, and freight rates [7]. Key Market News - India cuts December Russian crude oil orders and increases US crude oil purchases; Switzerland may reach a 15% tariff agreement with the US; Turkey's benchmark stock index drops 3% due to a political event; An investigation into a US federal official is upgraded [8].