国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and risks in Indonesia are in a game, resulting in low - level fluctuations [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: It lacks upward driving forces, and there is no clear indication of a large - scale downward trend [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The subsidy in Inner Mongolia has declined, the energy storage installation in October has decreased, and the output of Australian mines has increased [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the bottom support [2][12]. - Polysilicon: It has entered a policy vacuum period, and the market is trading based on supply - demand logic [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 300 yuan compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,465 yuan, down 140 yuan compared to T - 1. There were also various data changes in volume, prices of related products, and profit margins [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Incidents such as the Indonesian forestry working group taking over a nickel mine, China suspending non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and the Indonesian government's sanctions on mining companies and regulations on RKAB approval were reported. Also, Trump's potential tariff increase and Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses were mentioned [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 84,620 yuan, up 120 yuan compared to T - 1. There were also data on volume, open interest, basis, prices of raw materials and lithium salts, and consumption - related products [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. Inner Mongolia adjusted the compensation standard for independent new - energy storage power stations in 2026, and the domestic new - energy storage project installation scale in October 2025 decreased [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2601 for industrial silicon was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan compared to T - 1; the closing price of the PS2601 for polysilicon was 51,930 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan compared to T - 1. There were also data on volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Fujian Province announced the rules for the new - energy incremental project bidding in 2025, with a total mechanism electricity scale of 4.63 billion kWh [14][15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is - 1 (slightly bearish) [15].