国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, influencing factors, and potential risks [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The ongoing government shutdown continues to impact liquidity. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][6]. - Silver: Expected to have an oscillating rebound. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][6]. Base Metals - Copper: Supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [2][11]. - Zinc: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [2][14]. - Lead: Inventory increases significantly, limiting price increases. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance [2][17]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts. The trend strength is 1, showing a slightly bullish outlook [2][20]. - Aluminum: The price center is expected to move up. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [2][23]. - Alumina: Expected to oscillate at the bottom. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is 1, showing a slightly bullish outlook [2][23]. - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and risks in Indonesia are in a tug - of - war, with prices expected to oscillate at low levels. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][26]. - Stainless Steel: Lacks upward drivers, and the downside is also limited. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][26]. Energy - Related Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: Subsidies in Inner Mongolia are declining, energy storage installation in October decreased, and Australian ore production increased. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [2][31]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the bottom support. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [2][34]. - Polysilicon: Entered a policy vacuum period, and the market is trading based on supply - demand logic. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [2][35]. - Iron Ore: The inventory accumulation pressure has materialized, and prices are falling from high levels. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][38]. - Rebar: Expected to have wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][41]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Expected to have wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][42]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by sector sentiment resonance, expected to have wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][46]. - Manganese Silico - Manganese: Supported by the sentiment of the ore end, expected to have wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][46]. - Coke: Expected to follow the downward trend. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [2][50]. - Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuations are declining. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [2][51]. Other Commodities - Log: Expected to oscillate repeatedly. The trend strength is not provided [2][53]. - Para - Xylene: Supported by aromatics blending for gasoline, expected to trade at high levels. No trend strength is provided [2][2]. - PTA: Demand is fair, but supply pressure remains, expected to trade at high levels. No trend strength is provided [2][2]. - MEG: Supply pressure is relatively large, with a downward trend. No trend strength is provided [2][2]. - Rubber: Expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][30]. - Synthetic Rubber: Supported in the short - term, expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][32]. - Asphalt: The situation in Venezuela has heated up again. No trend strength is provided [2][34]. - LLDPE: Profits in the monomer segment are compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure. No trend strength is provided [2][36]. - PP: Expected to have a downward trend. No trend strength is provided [2][37]. - Caustic Soda: Expected to oscillate mainly. No trend strength is provided [2][38]. - Pulp: Expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][40]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength is provided [2][42]. - Methanol: The driving force is downward, but the downside space is gradually narrowing. No trend strength is provided [2][43]. - Urea: Expected to trade within the valuation range, under short - term pressure. No trend strength is provided [2][45]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short - term. No trend strength is provided [2][47]. - Soda Ash: There are few changes in the spot market. No trend strength is provided [2][48]. - LPG: Demand improvement is limited, and the market valuation is high. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Propylene: Supply - demand gap narrows, with short - term support. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - PVC: The trend still faces pressure. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Fuel Oil: Expected to oscillate, still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Strengthened in the night session, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur oil rebounded slightly. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Short - Fiber: Peak - season demand continues, expected to oscillate with an upward bias. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Bottle Chip: Supported by upstream factors, expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Offset Printing Paper: Expected to oscillate at low levels. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Pure Benzene: Expected to oscillate weakly. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Palm Oil: Temporarily stabilizes in the short - term, with limited rebound height. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Soybean Oil: U.S. soybeans stabilize, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Soybean No. 1: Expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Corn: Expected to oscillate. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Sugar: Expected to trade within a range. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Cotton: Lacks upward drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Eggs: Expected to maintain an oscillating trend. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Live Pigs: The price spread between fat and lean pigs in the north is narrowing, and driving factors are emerging. No trend strength is provided [2][5]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength is provided [2][5].