国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251112

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Temporarily stabilized in the short term, with limited rebound height [2] - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans stabilized, continue to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2] - Soybean meal: Range-bound [2] - Soybean No.1: Range-bound [2] - Corn: Moving in a range [2] - Sugar: Consolidating within a range [2] - Cotton: Lacking upward drivers, futures prices oscillating within a range [2] - Eggs: Maintaining a range-bound trend [2] - Live pigs: The price spread between fattening and standard pigs in the north is weakening, and the driving force is emerging [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's daily and night - session closing prices were 8,770 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) and 8,734 yuan/ton (down 0.41%) respectively; soybean oil's were 8,238 yuan/ton (up 0.12%) and 8,248 yuan/ton (up 0.12%). The trading volume and open interest of palm oil decreased, while those of soybean oil showed different trends. Spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: CIMB Securities expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to increase by 4.0% to 2.57 million tons in November due to a 10% month - on - month decline in exports, and production to decline by 8.0% to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October. SPPOMA reported that from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production decreased compared to the same period last month [5][6]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean No.1 2601's daily and night - session closing prices were 4,112 yuan/ton (down 0.05%) and 4,114 yuan/ton (down 0.34%); DCE soybean meal 2601's were 3,054 yuan/ton (up 0.10%) and 3,046 yuan/ton (down 0.39%). Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the inventory decreased [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On November 11, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed, with a near - weak and far - strong trend. Traders were waiting for China's large - scale soybean purchases and the USDA's global supply - demand report [12]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of C2601 and C2603 were 2,177 yuan/ton (up 0.93%) and 2,197 yuan/ton (up 0.60%) during the day, and 2,180 yuan/ton (up 0.14%) and 2,196 yuan/ton (down 0.05%) at night. The trading volume increased, and the open interest changed differently. Spot prices in some regions increased [16]. - Macro and Industry News: Corn prices in northern China and the south showed different trends. Imported sorghum and barley prices were reported [17]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The raw sugar price was 14.28 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,760 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,480 yuan/ton. The 15 - spread was 69 yuan/ton, and the 59 - spread was 7 yuan/ton [19]. - Macro and Industry News: High - frequency information focused on China's syrup and premix import policy changes. The 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season's production, consumption, and import data were reported for different countries and regions [19][20][21]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of CF2601 and CY2601 decreased. The trading volume of CF2601 decreased, and the open interest increased. Spot prices of cotton in different regions changed slightly [23]. - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot market's trading was general, and the cotton yarn market was mixed. ICE cotton futures were in a low - level oscillation [24][25]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of egg 2512 and egg 2601 decreased. The price spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly [28]. Live Pigs - Fundamental Tracking: Spot prices in different regions varied. Futures prices of different contracts decreased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts increased. The price spreads between different contracts changed [30]. - Market Information: The national feed output in September increased month - on - month and year - on - year [31]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Spot prices of peanuts in different regions changed. Futures prices of PK601 and PK603 increased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts increased [34]. - Spot Market Focus: Peanut prices in different regions were stable or slightly increased, with different degrees of supply and demand situations [35].