Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend analyses and viewpoints on various energy - chemical futures on November 12, 2025. Different futures have different trends, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and short - term support. For example, PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand; MEG has a weakening price trend due to supply pressure; and rubber is in an oscillating state [11][13]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Dynamics: On November 11, PX prices fell, and the weakness in the PX spot market became more obvious. The floating spread of PX turned from a premium to a discount. MEG had a high planned arrival volume at major ports from November 10 - 16, and a large - scale MEG device was restarting. Polyester sales were weak on November 11 [6][9]. - Trend Intensity: PX and PTA have a trend intensity of 0, while MEG has a trend intensity of - 1 [11]. - Views and Suggestions: PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand supporting the aromatics valuation. PTA is in a high - level oscillating state, and it is advisable to short the processing fee at high levels. MEG has a weakening price trend, and it is advisable to short the spread at high levels [11]. Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: The rubber futures market had small price fluctuations, and the spot market prices of some varieties changed slightly. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and the Qingdao inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period [13][15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rubber is 0 [13]. - Industry News: The prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic production areas are stable, and the domestic raw material prices are firm, but the inventory pressure suppresses the rubber price [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: The futures prices of synthetic rubber decreased slightly, and the spot prices of some varieties increased slightly. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the raw material butadiene price was stable [16][17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0 [18]. - Industry News: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the spot transaction improved, forming a short - term oscillating support pattern. In the medium - term, butadiene is in a weak state, driving the dynamic downward movement of cis - butadiene rubber [19]. Asphalt - Fundamental Tracking: The asphalt futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [20][35]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of asphalt is 1 [28]. - Market News: The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory in Shandong increased significantly, and the social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly [35]. LLDPE - Fundamental Tracking: The LLDPE futures price decreased, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The raw material oil price oscillated, and the monomer profit was compressed [36][37]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [38]. - Market Situation Analysis: The raw material oil price oscillated, the monomer profit was compressed, and the downstream demand had rigid support, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness weakened after the price decline last week [37]. PP - Fundamental Tracking: The PP futures price decreased, and the spot market was slightly weak. The trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly pressured the PP price [40][41]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [42]. - Market Situation Analysis: Multiple factors jointly pressured the PP price, and the weak demand and high supply will continue to suppress the price in the long - term [41]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Tracking: The caustic soda futures price and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the market continued to short the chlor - alkali profit [44][45][46]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0 [47]. - Market Situation Analysis: The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the demand and cost factors limited the rebound space of caustic soda [46]. Pulp - Fundamental Tracking: The pulp futures price oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The futures market was driven by funds and arbitrage behavior, and the actual demand did not increase significantly [51][52]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of pulp is 0 [51]. - Industry News: The pulp futures market was high - level oscillating, and the spot price increased, but the actual demand did not increase significantly. The supply pressure remained, and the downstream demand was weak [52][53]. Glass - Fundamental Tracking: The glass futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was based on low - price selection [54]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of glass is 0 [54]. - Spot News: The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was cautious [54]. Methanol - Fundamental Tracking: The methanol futures price decreased, and the spot price in some areas increased. The methanol market was regionally adjusted, and the supply was high while the demand was under pressure [56][58]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of methanol is - 1 [59]. - Spot News: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the market was regionally adjusted. The supply was high, and the demand was under pressure [58]. Urea - Fundamental Tracking: The urea futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the production and sales were in a weak balance [60][61]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of urea is 0 [62]. - Industry News: The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the short - term urea is expected to oscillate. The domestic fundamental pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [61][62]. Styrene - Fundamental Tracking: The styrene futures price decreased, and the profit margin improved slightly. The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern [63][64]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of styrene is 0 [63]. - Spot News: The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [64]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Tracking: The soda ash futures price increased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The comprehensive supply of soda ash decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was general [66]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of soda ash is 0 [67]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, and it is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short - term [66]. LPG, Propylene - Fundamental Tracking: The LPG and propylene futures prices had small fluctuations, and the spot prices of some varieties changed slightly. The PDH and MTBE operating rates increased [71]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are 0 [75]. - Market News: The CP paper prices of propane and butane changed slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [76][77]. PVC - Fundamental Tracking: The PVC futures price decreased, and the spot price continued to decline. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down [79]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of PVC is - 1 [80]. - Market Situation Analysis: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down. The trend still has pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Tracking: The fuel oil futures price decreased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price increased slightly at night. The high - and low - sulfur spread of the outer - market spot rebounded slightly [82]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are 1 [82]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Fundamental Tracking: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices had different trends, and the freight rates of different routes changed. The SCFIS of the European and US - West routes increased, while the SCFI decreased [84]. - Trend Intensity: No trend intensity is provided for the container shipping index (European line). - Freight Index: The freight rates of different routes changed, and the future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [84][87].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251112
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-12 03:18