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期指:震荡走势,回调后仍有支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-12 03:18

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The stock index futures are in a volatile trend and still have support after a correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [期指期现数据跟踪] - On November 11, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. IF dropped 0.88%, IH dropped 0.62%, IC dropped 0.72%, and IM dropped 0.3% [3]. - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 3,615 lots, IH increased by 4,232 lots, IC decreased by 10,252 lots, and IM decreased by 8,391 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 5,129 lots, IH decreased by 1,967 lots, IC decreased by 8,077 lots, and IM decreased by 582 lots [3][4]. [趋势强度] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]. [重要驱动] - NDRC Director Zheng Shanjie chaired a symposium for private enterprises to solicit opinions on accelerating the development of the service industry for the 14th Five-Year Plan. The participating enterprises included those in industrial automation control, software and information services, industrial internet, comprehensive production services, and catering [8]. - Weak ADP employment data suggested a cooling US labor market, boosting expectations of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with the expected end of the US government shutdown, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1%, while the Nasdaq closed down due to the drag of technology stocks [8]. - The People's Bank of China's Q3 monetary policy report stated that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future. It aims to maintain a reasonable interest rate ratio, develop the "technology board" of the bond market, use risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and formulate a development plan for financial technology during the 14th Five - Year Plan and promote the application of AI large models in the financial sector in an orderly manner [8]. - The market was in a weak consolidation, with slower sector rotation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 4,002.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.4%. The total A - share trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan, down from 2.19 trillion yuan the previous day. The computing power hardware industry chain corrected again, with servers and CPO leading the decline. Military, AI applications, and consumer electronics also had significant declines. Photovoltaic and energy storage concepts were active, and the NDRC and NEA issued guidelines on promoting new energy consumption and regulation. The super - hard materials concept continued to be strong, and the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement related to super - hard materials. Influenza concept stocks continued to strengthen as China's influenza monitoring system showed that the overall influenza activity is in an upward stage [8].