冠通期货资讯早间报-20251112

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Energy Futures: WTI crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $61.04 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 1.7% to $65.15 per barrel [4]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.27% to $4,133.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.52% to $51.08 per ounce [5]. - Base Metals: Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 1.86% at $36,695 per ton, LME copper up 0.41% at $10,840 per ton, etc. [5]. - Domestic Futures: As of November 11 at 23:00, domestic futures were mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, while coking coal fell over 2% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose social financing environment [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, with 14 already issued and listed, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [8]. - From January to October, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales continued to grow, and in October, new - energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season from 2025 - 2026, requiring stable energy production and supply [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In September 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world increased, and exports to China from January - September increased significantly. Exports in October are expected to continue rising [12]. - Japan's Idemitsu Kosan believes US sanctions on Russian oil won't significantly affect crude prices [13]. - Trump said India is stopping buying Russian oil due to high - tariff threats [14]. - Domestic propylene prices rebounded after hitting a 5 - year low, driven by a PDH plant shutdown and increased downstream demand [14]. Metal Futures - Multiple silicon wafer companies cut prices due to an oversupply situation and reduced battery factory demand [16]. - China's recycled non - ferrous metal industry is expected to exceed 20 million tons by the end of 2025 [17]. - Longi Green Energy's component shipments in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeded 60GW, with TOPCon and BC components having significant shares [19]. - Guinea plans to build 5 - 6 alumina refineries by 2030 to increase processing capacity to about 7 million tons [19]. Black - Series Futures - As of November 11, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 50 electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and daily production also rose [21]. - From November 3 - 9, iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly [21]. - Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased significantly. Xinjiang plans to reduce construction steel production during winter to ease inventory pressure [22]. Agricultural Futures - As of the 45th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories decreased by 6.26% week - on - week [25]. - Domestic palm oil inventories decreased slightly, and the spread between soybean and palm oil prices increased palm oil's attractiveness [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume dropped to a 6 - month low last week but is expected to rise this week [26]. - Analysts predict a slight decrease in US soybean production and a small increase in ending stocks for the 2025/26 season [26]. - November's soybean crushing volume is expected to be high, and bean粕 inventory is likely to remain above 1 million tons at the end of the month [27]. - Pig and pork prices continued to decline in the first week of November [27]. - As of October 31, China's cotton picking progress was 94.5%, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in early November [29]. - Brazil's November soybean, bean粕, and corn exports are expected to increase [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares were weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4,002.76 points, and the trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.18% to 26,696.41 points, and南向 funds had a net inflow of HK$44.67 billion [31]. - Since October, margin trading funds have flowed into the power equipment, electronics, and non - ferrous metal industries [31]. - Laser radar company Hesai Technology reported a profit in Q3 and expects significant revenue growth in Q4 [33]. Industry - In October, new - energy vehicle sales in China accounted for over 50% of total vehicle sales. The CAAM suggests optimizing the "trade - in" policy [34]. - China will build pilot platforms in 6 key areas and 37 industries [36]. - Shanghai's "implantable wireless brain - computer interface system" entered the innovation medical device review process [36]. - The first humanoid robot 7S store opened in Wuhan [37]. - Huizhou, Guangdong, relaxed household registration restrictions [37]. Overseas - The US Senate passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and the House will vote on it [38]. - Trump warned of an economic disaster if the Supreme Court rules against his tariff policy and is close to a trade deal with India [38]. - US private - sector employment decreased, and small - business optimism hit a 6 - month low [38][40]. - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5% in the three months to September [40]. International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 1.18%, the S&P 500 up 0.21%, and the Nasdaq down 0.25% [41]. - European stocks rose across the board, driven by reduced US government shutdown risk and expected Fed rate cuts [41]. - SoftBank sold Nvidia and T - Mobile stocks to raise funds for OpenAI investment [42]. - Toyota's plan to privatize Toyota Industries faces challenges due to an investor's stake increase [42]. - Sony's Q2 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and it raised its full - year profit forecast [44]. Commodities - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange changed their leaders [45]. - Some banks raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation plans [45]. - Crude oil prices rose due to US sanctions on Russian oil and expected end of the US government shutdown [45]. - Precious metals prices rose due to geopolitical risks and expected Fed rate cuts [46]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling [48]. - The Hong Kong government issued about HK$10 billion equivalent of digital green bonds [48]. - US Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety due to the government shutdown [48]. - Bonds of some tech giants were sold off due to concerns about AI spending [49]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 on Tuesday, down 32 points from the previous day [50]. - The US dollar index fell 0.14%, and most non - US currencies had mixed performances [51]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic Data: Include Japan's November Reuters Tankan index, Germany's October CPI final value, etc. [54] - Events: There are central bank open - market operations, official press conferences, and speeches by central bank officials [56]