国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience a high - level decline due to the realization of inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, while silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the price - supporting sentiment from the ore end [2][11]. - Coke is expected to follow the market downward [2][15]. - Coking coal is expected to see a valuation decline due to the repeated supply expectations [2][16]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price of iron ore closed at 763.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The open interest decreased by 11,250 hands. Spot prices remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4]. - News: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and HC2601 was 3,242 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%). Open interest and trading volume changed. Spot prices in different regions had minor fluctuations. Basis and spreads also changed [7]. - News: In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased in quantity and price. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data in November and October showed various trends. The government supported commercial real estate REITs issuance [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the price of manganese ore rose. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11]. - News: There were price quotes and tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in November. From January to October 2025, the national silicomanganese production was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5%, and there were new capacity plans [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased by 4.1% and 3.4% respectively. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [16]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission held an energy supply guarantee meeting for the heating season [16]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 for both, indicating a bearish trend [17]. Logs - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of different log contracts decreased slightly. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of various log types were mostly stable [19]. - News: China decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].