煤焦：采暖季加强保供，盘面震荡偏弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, while the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly increased; demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. Coking coal prices are still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued at night. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing strengthening coal production organization and transportation guarantee. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices have risen again, and the fourth round of coke price increase is still in the negotiation process [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output decreased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 tons, a decrease of 2 tons from the previous week and 4.6 tons year - on - year. On the import side, from November 3rd to 8th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 19.52 tons, an increase of 3.09 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] - Demand Side: Steel mills' profits continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average hot metal output decreased to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons from the previous week. The recent decline in hot metal is related to the significant narrowing of profits and the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan. Currently, the profitability level will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills, and the phased restrictions in Tangshan have been lifted. Later, attention should be paid to the changes in steel mills' profitability and production rhythm [3] Group 4: Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in steel mills' blast furnace start - up and the resumption of coal mine production [4]