碳酸锂日评：宽幅震荡-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level. High prices have increased the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, resulting in light trading in the spot market. However, there is an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the game between long and short positions has intensified. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices, and speculators can try short positions with light positions after the upward trend is blocked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Contracts: On November 11, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 84,620 yuan/ton (+120), and the consecutive - one contract closed at 86,340 yuan/ton (-780) [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 902,490 lots (-84,079), and the open interest of the active contract was 526,493 lots (-7,990) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was 28,099 tons (+608), and the SMM total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3,405 tons compared to the previous week [1]. - Spreads: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed changes. For example, the near - month - consecutive - one spread was - 2,620 yuan/ton (+900), and the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 4,240 yuan/ton (+2,250) [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Raw Material Prices - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 975 US dollars/ton, and the average prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and other lithium ores also increased to varying degrees [1]. - Lithium Compounds: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), and other lithium compounds increased, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Industry News - In October, the export volume of Brazilian spodumene concentrate decreased by 85% month - on - month compared to September, mainly because the largest spodumene producer in the country, Sigma Lithium, did not export during this period. However, the export volume increased by about 54% year - on - year. Sigma Lithium sold a record 58,900 tons in September to clear inventory but did not export in October [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials also increased [1]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the planned production of lithium carbonate increased, while that of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales in October slowed down month - on - month and year - on - year, 3C shipments were average, and the planned production of energy - storage batteries in November increased [1].