Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated submission of "anti-involution" with no actual progress, the susceptibility of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, sufficient supply of the main downstream PP with weak demand, and the low and weak external propane market with continuous losses in PDH profits [2] - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls leading to a rebound in spot prices, while negative factors include high supply despite PDH losses and weak downstream PP demand [3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The predicted monthly price range for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1261 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.6133 [1] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton and sell call options (PL2601C6200) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to long propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] Industry Data - On November 11, 2025, Brent crude oil closed at $65.09/barrel, up $1.15 from the previous day and $0.74 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $60.99/barrel, up $0.94 from the previous day and $0.56 from the previous week [6] - The price of propylene in the Shandong region was 5765 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 70 yuan/ton from the previous week; in the East China region, it was 5875 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [6] - The profit of PDH (using FEI) was - 275.32 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, down 60.06 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 32.47 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of PDH (using CP) was - 216.73 yuan/ton, down 56.42 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 25.62 yuan/ton from the previous week [6] Seasonal Price Charts - There are seasonal price charts for upstream raw materials (such as Brent, WTI, NWE NAP, etc.), mid - stream propylene prices (such as in Shandong, East China, etc.), downstream prices (such as PP, epoxy propane, etc.), and盘面 prices (such as propylene month - spreads, PP - PL spreads, etc.) [8][20][27]
丙烯产业风险管理日报-20251112
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-12 04:57