农产品日报：棉价延续低位震荡，关注本周UDSA报告-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][7] Report Core View - Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification; medium - and long - term cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure. Short - term sugar prices have limited downward space, while long - term prices may not be optimistic. Pulp prices are boosted by macro - sentiment but have limited fundamental improvement and upward space [2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,668 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1108, up 17 from the previous day; the national average price was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1282, up 18 from the previous day. In October, Brazil's cotton exports were 294,000 tons, up 64.4% month - on - month and 4.6% year - on - year, with China and India as the main destinations, each accounting for 23%, and Bangladesh accounting for 14% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, macro - sentiment improved at the end of October, but due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed. With new cotton on the market in the Northern Hemisphere, supply pressure was released, and weak global textile consumption limited the short - term rebound of the outer market. Domestically, as the harvest progressed, the expected new cotton output declined, and the seed cotton purchase price stabilized and rebounded, supporting the market. However, new cotton was still expected to increase in production, and downstream demand was weak [1] Strategy - The short - term cotton price is under strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the medium and long term, with low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR01 + 280, down 5 from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of SR01 + 170, down 5 from the previous day. Analysts expected Brazil's central - southern region to crush 29.42 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of October, up 8.1% year - on - year, and produce 1.92 million tons of sugar, up 7.8% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil's strong exports and India's expected production rebound and increased exports suppressed market confidence. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, limiting the rebound of raw sugar. Domestically, although new - season sugar production was expected to increase, the price was near the cost line, and strict syrup control policies supported the price, limiting the short - term decline [4] Strategy - In the short term, sugar prices should be treated with a volatile mindset. In the long term, domestic sugar supply and demand are expected to be loose, and prices may not be optimistic [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,484 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 56, down 1 from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 359, up 24 from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market price continued to rise, with some prices of imported softwood pulp and hardwood pulp increasing [5] Market Analysis - Supply: European pulp port inventory declined in September but was still high. Domestic pulp imports rebounded in September, and port inventory remained high. Demand: European and American pulp consumption was weak, and domestic demand was the core factor suppressing prices. Although there was new paper production capacity, terminal demand was insufficient, paper mills' operating rates declined, and profits shrank. During the peak season, downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement [6] Strategy - Pulp prices are boosted by macro - sentiment but have limited fundamental improvement and upward space. Attention should be paid to the implementation of demand in the fourth quarter [7]