新能源及有色金属日报：持货商报价趋于稳定，铜价暂陷震荡格局-20251112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, copper prices remained in a relatively volatile pattern, supported by mine - end interference factors. However, the demand side is lackluster, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging according to this range [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 86,790 yuan/ton and closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 86,590 yuan/ton and closed at 86,770 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,610 - 86,920 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 55 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. After the morning copper futures hit 87,000 yuan/ton and then fell, the market's purchase sentiment cooled. The premium of flat - water copper gradually narrowed, and some brands were traded at a small discount. Shanghai's inventory is continuously decreasing, and the quotes of holders tend to be stable [2] Important Information Summary - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds to the federal government until January 30 next year. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday. In the employment market, the U.S. "small non - farm" warned again: from the four - week period ending October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in the month [3] Supply - Side Information Mine End - On November 11, Canadian multi - metal developer BMC Minerals submitted a prospectus to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, planning to raise 100 million Australian dollars through an initial public offering (IPO) to list on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in December. The funds will be used for the exploration, approval, and optimization research of the KZK project in Canada's Yukon Territory, which covers an area of 372 square kilometers with a total mineral resource of 27.9 million tons [4] Smelting and Import - As of the end of October this year, the cumulative import of copper concentrate powder at Wulate Customs exceeded 10 million tons, reaching 10.0656 million tons, with a value of 133.873 billion yuan. In the first 10 months, the import volume was 1.215 million tons, with a value of 25.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 56.2% and 106.9% respectively [5] Consumption and Inventory Information Consumption - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 63.84%. According to the production plan, the domestic copper strip production in November is expected to be 194,600 tons, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 375 tons to 136,250 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 825 tons to 42,964 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 195,900 tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons compared with the previous week [6] Copper Price and Basis Data - It includes data on copper price, premium and discount, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage indicators from different time points (today, yesterday, last week, one month ago) [24][25][26]