Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The regulatory trend is easing, and the market is waiting for incremental policies. The external economic pressure remains but is weakening, and the internal high - quality development has achieved positive results, yet the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs further consolidation. The effect of counter - cyclical adjustment of monetary policy is gradually emerging, and the financial aggregate is growing reasonably. The intensity of the "high - quality financial development" statement is reduced, and in the future, counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments will be carried out to improve the efficiency of macro - economic governance [2]. - The current monetary cycle is entering the top - range. The central bank is less likely to actively tighten liquidity, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of transmission to the real economy. Structural policies still focus on four major areas: "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". The RMB exchange rate volatility is expected to increase, and the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market is reduced, increasing the flexibility of monetary policy implementation. There may be a possibility of further monetary policy easing in the future [3]. - In 2026, the monetary policy is still waiting for incremental measures. After the monetary cycle enters the top - range, attention should be paid to the impact of the increasing market pressure in the second half of 2026 on the change of liquidity injection structure, and the monetary policy will become more accommodative [4]. Summary According to the Directory "The Monetary Policy Execution Report" Abstract Comparison Analysis First Paragraph: General Tone - Economic and macro - policy level: The pressure on the current economy is further weakened. The description of high - quality development has changed from "making new progress" to "achieving positive results"; the economic situation has changed from "performing well" to "generally stable", and the "resilience" of the economy is emphasized before "vitality" [11][13][15]. - Monetary policy level: The description has been adjusted. "Strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment" is deleted, and "maintaining sufficient liquidity" is added, indicating a weakening of "counter - cyclical" and a decrease in incremental easing as money is transmitted to the real economy. The goal of monetary policy has shifted from emphasizing "serving the high - quality development of the real economy" to "stabilizing the financial market operation". The use of "quantity, price, and structure" monetary policy tools is emphasized, increasing the possibility of the policy shifting from structural to aggregate adjustment [16]. Second Paragraph: Monetary Policy Execution - There are not many changes compared between the two quarters. The execution of monetary policy still covers five aspects: monetary credit, financing cost, credit structure, exchange rate stability, and risk prevention. - For aggregate monetary policies, the specific price (interest rate cut) and quantity (reserve requirement ratio cut) adjustments in the second - quarter report are weakened in the third - quarter report, indicating that the policy is waiting for the transmission effect of aggregate monetary policy tools [20][21][23]. - For structural monetary policies, the new and increased - quota policy operations in the second - quarter report are in the implementation state of "using well" and "giving full play to" existing policies in the third - quarter report, lacking incremental policies [23]. - The descriptions of exchange rate stability and risk prevention and resolution remain the same in the third and second quarters [24]. Third Paragraph: Effects of Monetary Policy - The third - quarter monetary policy report basically continues the second - quarter statement, but shows the gradual manifestation of the "moderately accommodative" policy effect. - Policy tone: The effect of counter - cyclical adjustment is "gradually emerging", and the financial aggregate has changed from "growing steadily" to "growing reasonably", indicating that the growth of the financial aggregate is more in line with the economic growth and price level targets [28][29][30]. - Effect performance: The financing cost remains low, but the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The RMB exchange rate has appreciated by 1.2% compared to the end of last year, showing better performance in both cost reduction and enhancing economic expectations [30]. Fourth Paragraph: Future Monetary Policy Tone - For the judgment of the future economic situation, the pressure on the external environment is weakened, the problems are more clearly defined, and the response measures are strengthened. There is still a demand for aggregate policies as the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs further consolidation [35][36][38]. - In terms of the central bank's work in the next stage, the importance of building a financial powerhouse is advanced, and the demand for counter - cyclical monetary policy is increasing. The goal of "building a financial powerhouse" is advanced, and the statement of "high - quality financial development" is deleted. The focus of the policy implementation has shifted from "stabilizing employment" to "stabilizing growth" [39]. Fifth Paragraph: Future Monetary Policy Implementation - Aggregate monetary policy: The central bank's monetary policy has changed from "implementing in detail" in the second quarter to "implementing well" in the third quarter. The probability of the central bank actively tightening liquidity is reduced, and the policy framework will be continuously improved to strengthen policy implementation and transmission [47][48][49]. - Interest rate policy: The regulatory intensity of interest rate policy implementation and supervision may be weakened, and the constraints on the money supply side are relaxed, highlighting the support for the demand side [49]. - Structural policy: The third - quarter report emphasizes "implementing well" existing policies, and the focus areas remain the same: "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". The central bank also mentions policy support for the digital economy [50]. - Exchange rate policy: The description of the exchange rate has changed from "resilience" to "elasticity", and from "stabilizing expectations" to "guiding expectations". The "three resolutes" are deleted, increasing the flexibility of monetary policy implementation and the possibility of future policy easing [51][54]. - In terms of preventing financial risks, the third - quarter report continues the second - quarter statement [55]. "The Monetary Policy Execution Report" Column Analysis Column 1: Scientifically View Financial Aggregate Indicators - It is more appropriate to focus on aggregate indicators such as social financing scale and money supply rather than credit indicators. The slowdown in the growth rate of aggregate indicators is normal, and the goal of "matching the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level targets" remains unchanged. In the future, attention should be gradually shifted from quantity indicators to price indicators such as interest rates [62]. Column 2: The Relationship between Base Money and Money - By analyzing the relationship between the central bank's base money and broad money, it helps to clarify the concept of "excessive money issuance". The scale and growth rate of base money and broad money in China and the United States are compared, and it is pointed out that the US M2 caliber is narrower than that of China [63][64][65]. Column 3: Achievements and Prospects of Financial Support for the Digital Economy during the "14th Five - Year Plan" Period - The central bank's view on the digital economy in the financial field includes two aspects: the digital transformation of the financial industry and financial services for the digital economy. The policy framework system is gradually improving, the digital transformation is advancing steadily, digital technology is empowering high - quality financial services, data element value is being released, and financial data governance is more perfect [69]. Column 4: Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Ratio - Attention should be paid to the relationship between the central bank's policy interest rate and market interest rate, the impact of deposit and loan interest rate changes on bank net interest margins, the interest rate spread between bank loans and bonds, the term spread of different - term time deposits, and the relationship between corporate financing interest rates and government bond yields [70].
中国货币政策系列二十二：中枢已现，货币周期进入顶部区间
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-12 05:04