尿素早评：区间震荡-20251112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Although the fourth urea export quota has boosted recent market sentiment, the 600,000 - ton volume is not large compared to the current urea supply, and the futures market has declined slightly in the past two days. However, the export quota is beneficial for alleviating domestic supply - demand pressure, and the fourth - quarter urea winter storage will gradually start nationwide, so the urea price is supported. In the 10.21 report, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and it is noted that the 12 - contract options will expire today [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 futures price closed at 1640 yuan/ton on November 11, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from November 10; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.87%); UR09 closed at 1738 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.97%). Among domestic spot prices, only Shandong's price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.62%), while other regions remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream, the prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged. Downstream, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.02% and 1.20% respectively), the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1660 yuan/ton, with a high of 1662 yuan/ton, a low of 1636 yuan/ton, a close of 1640 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1648 yuan/ton, and a position of 254,037 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Stop losses for selling put options on the 12 - contract [1]