Xiangyu(SH:600057) Tianfeng Securities·2025-11-12 05:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu, with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant recovery in profitability, with a 2025 revenue of CNY 316.9 billion, a 6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of CNY 1.633 billion, an 84% increase year-on-year, returning to 2021 levels [1] - The logistics and supply chain sectors have improved, with black metal supply chain volumes and revenues increasing, and energy and chemical supply chains seeing over 40% growth in volume [2] - Future profitability may benefit from potential commodity price increases, especially if the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, which could weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at CNY 459.04 billion, with a decline of 14.7% expected in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in 2025 to CNY 376.39 billion [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to CNY 2.116 billion from an earlier estimate of CNY 2.4 billion, with further projections of CNY 2.345 billion in 2026 and CNY 2.617 billion in 2027 [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be CNY 0.74 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.79 [4] Industry Overview - The report highlights the transportation and logistics industry, emphasizing the ongoing improvements in supply chain management and operational efficiency [5] - The logistics segment has seen a 17% increase in revenue, driven by strategic investments in international logistics capabilities [2]