南华贵金属日报：黄金、白银：短线转强-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short term, precious metals are strengthening. For London gold, the resistance is at 4150, and the support is between 4000 - 4050. For silver, the support is between 49.5 - 50, and the resistance is at 52.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, precious metals remained strong. The potential end of the US government shutdown eases the current market liquidity shortage and supports the Fed's December rate - cut expectation. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2 per ounce, up 0.27%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $51.075 per ounce, up 1.52%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 948.88 yuan per gram, up 2.67%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11880 yuan per kilogram, up 3.2% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectation slightly rebounded. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 32.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 67.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 13.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 35.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 18.2 tons to 591.9 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. In terms of events, on Wednesday, at 22:20, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; at 23:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on fintech; at 23:45, US Treasury Secretary Baisent will speak. On Friday, at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamark will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday, at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main continuous contract is at 948.88 yuan per gram, up 12.9 yuan or 1.38%. SGX gold TD is at 946.5 yuan per gram, up 13.48 yuan or 1.44%. CME gold main contract is at $4133.2 per ounce, down $23.9 or 0.57%. SHFE silver main continuous contract is at 11880 yuan per kilogram, up 161 yuan or 1.37%. SGX silver TD is at 11865 yuan per kilogram, up 139 yuan or 1.19%. CME silver main contract is at $51.075 per ounce, up $0.67 or 1.33%. SHFE - TD gold is at 2.38 yuan per gram, down 0.58 yuan or 19.59%. SHFE - TD silver is at 15 yuan per kilogram, up 22 yuan or - 275%. CME gold - silver ratio is 80.9241, down 1.5499 or 1.88% [6][7] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 89616 kilograms, unchanged. CME gold inventory is 1168.7184 tons, down 4.7997 tons or 0.41%. SHFE gold position is 131045 lots, down 5612 lots or 4.11%. SPDR gold position is 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons or 0.41%. SHFE silver inventory is 591.884 tons, down 18.094 tons or 2.97%. CME silver inventory is 14884.8306 tons, down 17.0023 tons or 0.11%. SGX silver inventory is 822.42 tons, down 7.89 tons or 0.95%. SHFE silver position is 233702 lots, down 9515 lots or 3.91%. SLV silver position is 15088.632696 tons, unchanged [15] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 99.4822, down 0.1411 or 0.14%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.12, down 0.0032 or 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 47927.96 points, up 559.33 points or 1.18%. WTI crude oil spot is at $61.04 per barrel, up $0.91 or 1.51%. LmeS copper 03 is at $10840 per ton, down $34.5 or 0.32%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.13%, up 0.02 or 0.49%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.84%, up 0.01 or 0.55%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.55%, down 0.01 or 1.79% [21]