LPG产业风险管理日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with prices oscillating between $63 - 65 this week and a slightly lower price center; the CP November contract price showing supply - side pressure; the US propane inventory at a historical high and demand being seasonally weak; and the domestic fundamental situation with a slight contraction in supply and relatively strong chemical demand [2][5]. - There are both negative and positive factors. Negative factors are the continuous losses in the domestic PDH sector and the shrinking Asian cracking profit which may reduce the demand for PG as a cracking substitute. Positive factors are the potential avoidance of a US government shutdown and the supply - decrease and demand - increase in the fundamentals this week, along with a rebound in civil gas prices [5]. Summaries by Catalog LPG Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.77% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 9.53% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to lock in profits and cover production costs, and sell the PG2512C4400 call option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio around 4000 to lock in procurement costs, and sell the PG2512P4000 put option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 50 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [1]. Industry Data Summary - The data shows the prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products on different dates from November 4 to November 11, 2025, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [6].