新能源及有色金属日报：消息及情绪扰动较多，多晶硅盘面回落-20251112

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, production in the southwest region is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but both supply and demand are weakening. The decline in downstream products due to weak consumption has led to a drop in the polysilicon futures market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures Market: On November 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,265 yuan/ton and closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 270,959 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,079 lots, a change of - 176 lots from the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The domestic silicon - coal market showed a pattern of supply contraction, with a regional differentiation of "three increases, one decrease, and two stabilizations" since mid - October [1]. - Consumption Side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. As the monomer industry conference approached, most monomer factories had officially closed their offers and would resume quoting after the conference [2]. Polysilicon - Futures Market: On November 11, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 53,600 yuan/ton and closing at 51,930 yuan/ton, a - 2.50% change from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 138,468 lots (125,974 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 324,598 lots [5]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a - 0.77% change), silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a - 7.45% change), the weekly polysilicon production was 27,000.00 tons (a - 4.30% change), and the silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a - 5.55% change) [5]. Silicon Wafers - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers decreased. Two leading silicon wafer companies took the lead in reducing production, driving other companies to implement production cuts in November. The planned production in November is expected to decrease by 3 - 4GW compared to the previous month. The supply pattern of the silicon wafer market has deteriorated due to excessive contract manufacturing. In November, battery manufacturers tightened demand and limited procurement prices, leading to a sharp reduction in procurement orders and panic selling by second - and third - tier silicon wafer companies with tight cash flows. This caused the silicon material futures price to drop during trading on the 11th, but the spot price of silicon material remained unchanged as of the time of publication [7]. Battery Cells and Components - The prices of battery cells and components were generally stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, etc. The mainstream transaction prices of components also remained unchanged [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and consider buying on dips for contracts during the dry season [4]. - Other Strategies: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [4]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, with the price expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [9]. - Other Strategies: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are proposed [10].