新能源及有色金属日报：海外现货升水居高不下-20251112

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - In November, domestic zinc concentrate treatment charges (TC) dropped significantly, and overseas TC also decreased synchronously. With strong demand from smelters for zinc concentrate, TC is expected to decline further. [5] - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profits are severely compressed, leading to losses in high - cost areas, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure more than expected. [5] - Overseas zinc inventories are still low despite a slight increase in warehouse receipts, with high spot premiums. Domestic inventories are falling, and the export window is fully open, with the possibility of a significant seasonal decline in social inventories. [5] - Micro - data has almost fully shifted from bearish to bullish, while the macro - economic background remains positive. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $176.55 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a change of 90 yuan from the previous trading day and a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan, with a premium of - 75 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,620 yuan per ton, up 90 yuan, with a premium of - 85 yuan per ton. [2] - Futures: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,770 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan. The trading volume was 81,702 lots, and the open interest was 107,475 lots. The highest price was 22,810 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,630 yuan per ton. [3] - Inventory: As of November 11, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 159,600 tons, a change of 9,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, a change of 400 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc concentrate TC are both declining, and smelting profits are compressed, which will reduce supply - side pressure. [5] - Overseas inventories are low with high spot premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, with the export window open. [5] Strategy - Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral. [6]