新能源及有色金属日报：买卖双方存在一定拉锯，铅价维持震荡格局-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead price maintains a volatile pattern due to the tug - of - war between buyers and sellers. Low inventory and tight ore cost support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a potential decline after a rise. It is recommended to buy low and sell high within the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$12.30/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,350 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,325 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,505 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,855 lots, a decrease of 755 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 55,107 lots, a decrease of 3,618 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,575 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,435 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,485 yuan/ton and closed at 17,520 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared with the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory sales; in the Hunan region, smelters' quoted premiums decreased, with a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, and some manufacturers still held back sales after selling out their inventory; in the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex - factory sales. The lead futures fluctuated and consolidated, and downstream battery enterprises mainly took delivery through long - term contracts, with the market trading volume gradually weakening in some regions [2] Inventory - On November 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 33,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 11, the LME lead inventory was 226,725 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Neutral. Due to low inventory and tight ore cost supporting the lead price, but considering the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer, be vigilant against a decline after a rise. Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]