丙烯日报：供需驱动有限，延续底部盘整-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term may stop falling, but limited upward drive, mainly oscillating in the bottom range; - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot rebounds, and the futures price is supported to stop falling and consolidate. - The supply side has a phased reduction, but the supply is still loose, and the inventory pressure in the factory is still high. - The demand side is boosted by bargain hunting purchases, and the overall profit margin of downstream products has improved. The demand support for propylene may increase. - The cost support for propylene is limited due to the small increase in international oil prices and the continuous weakness of external propane. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5869 yuan/ton (-23), the East China spot price of propylene is 5875 yuan/ton (+25), the North China spot price of propylene is 5765 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis of propylene is 6 yuan/ton (+48), and the North China basis of propylene is -102 yuan/ton (+38). [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+0%), the propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 133 US dollars/ton (-1), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 63 US dollars/ton (-2). [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The propylene import profit is -240 yuan/ton (+52). [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 43% (-0.34%), production profit is -15 yuan/ton (+0); - Epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 268 yuan/ton (-57); - N-butanol capacity utilization rate is 86% (+2%), production profit is -86 yuan/ton (+0); - Octanol capacity utilization rate is 71% (-18%), production profit is -173 yuan/ton (-50); - Acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 72% (+5%), production profit is 579 yuan/ton (-53); - Acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 78% (-1%), production profit is -158 yuan/ton (-45); - Phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 76% (-3%), production profit is -390 yuan/ton (-25). [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The propylene inventory in the factory is 49,820 tons (+4,770). [1]