聚酯产业链期货周报-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX and PTA market is expected to maintain a tight - balance with PTA prices oscillating upwards, while MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are expected to experience short - term oscillations [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX: This week, PX supply increased while demand decreased. The spot floating price showed a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the paper - goods maintained a back structure. The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The PX operating rate recovered and remained at a high level in Asia. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][22][26]. - PTA: This week, PTA's supply and demand both declined, and the social inventory continued to rise. The spot processing fee remained low. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][30]. - MEG: Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range. The supply and demand both decreased, and there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options [7][43]. - Short - fiber: This week, short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable. Factory sales were weak, and inventory rose. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][21]. - Bottle - chip: The bottle - chip operating rate weakened slightly this week, and the trading atmosphere was light. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][16]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The polyester operating rate decreased slightly, production and sales were average, raw - material inventory decreased slightly, and processing fees fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. - The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing increased by 2% to 88%, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving decreased by 1% to 75%, and the comprehensive operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 2% to 80% [12]. - The production and sales of polyester filaments were weak, the operating rate changed little, factory inventory increased, and processing fees strengthened slightly. The average inventory days of polyester filaments increased by 0.7 days to 16.5 days [14]. - The bottle - chip trading atmosphere weakened, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the demand improvement in the off - season was limited [16]. - Short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable, factory inventory increased, and the future demand showed a seasonal decline [21]. 3.2.2 PX - The PX trading atmosphere was light this week. The December spot floating price was negotiated around +4 to +7, and the January floating price was around +2. The paper - goods monthly spread maintained a back structure [22]. - The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The average weekly spread of Asian PXN was 238 dollars/ton, and the average weekly spread of PX - MX was 110 dollars/ton [24]. - The PX operating rate recovered, and the Asian PX operating rate remained at a high level [26]. 3.2.3 PTA - Since late September, PTA's social inventory has continuously increased, and the basis and monthly spread have remained weak [28]. - PTA's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the spot processing fee remained low, with an average weekly processing fee of around 136 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2.4 MEG - Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [33]. - MEG's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the operating rate declined. There was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [43]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - Price: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and PX in the Chinese market [47]. - Spreads and Profits: It includes various spreads and profit indicators such as NAP Japan CFR - BLENT, PX - BLENT, PX - MX, etc. [49]. - Disproportionation and Blending Oil Spreads and Profits: It involves indicators such as the Asian toluene disproportionation - blending oil spread, toluene blending oil spread, and disproportionation profit [53]. - Regional Spreads and Profits: It shows the spreads and profits between different regions such as the United States and South Korea for toluene, xylene, and PX [56][57][59]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the PX operating rate and load in China and Asia [61][62]. 3.3.2 PTA - Price: It shows the spot prices of PTA and PX, and the spot processing fee and internal - external spread of PTA [67][68]. - Spreads: It includes the PTA01 basis and the PTA1 - 5 monthly spread [71]. - Profits: It shows the profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [73]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the PTA load index and polyester load [77]. - Inventory: It shows the PTA social inventory, factory inventory, and warehouse receipts [79]. 3.3.3 MEG - Price: It shows the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China and the prices of related raw materials [81]. - Spreads: It includes various spreads such as the internal - external spread of ethylene glycol, the East - South China spread, and the spot basis [83][86]. - Profits: It shows the profits of oil - based ethylene glycol production, MTO, and coal - based ethylene glycol production [93]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the ethylene glycol load index and the operating rate of synthetic - gas - based MEG [99]. 3.3.4 Polyester - Profits: It shows the weighted profit of polyester, the average profit of filaments, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip [104]. - Supply: It shows the operating rates of polyester, bottle - chip, filaments, and short - fiber [106]. - Inventory: It shows the average inventory days of filaments, short - fiber inventory days, and the inventory days of different types of polyester filaments [109]. - Demand: It shows the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing, weaving, and texturing, as well as the operating rate and inventory of pure - polyester yarn, and the export amount of textiles and clothing [112][117][120].