FICC日报：央行发布三季度货政报告，关注10月金融数据-20251112

Market Analysis - Domestic market has positive news, but economic foundation needs strengthening. The "15th Five-Year Plan" boosts market sentiment, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period. In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49, down 0.8 month-on-month; exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year, and core CPI reached the highest since March 2024. The central bank released the Q3 monetary policy report and net injected 2863 billion yuan on November 11. A-share indices adjusted, with the ChiNext down 1.4%. Super-hard materials concept rose, and photovoltaic and consumer sectors performed well. Commodities mostly rose, with precious metals leading the gains [1]. - US liquidity risk eases. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1. The Senate passed the appropriation bill, and the House will vote. The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.7% in October, and the "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs. Fed理事米兰 supports further rate cuts. Trump plans to reduce tariffs with Switzerland and India [1]. Commodity Analysis - In the inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, and the "anti-involution" situation should be noted. The non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations with long-term supply constraints. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, with OPEC+ increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. In the agricultural sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan and next year's weather. After the short-term adjustment of precious metals, consider buying on dips [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [3]. Key News - The central bank released the Q3 2025 monetary policy report, proposing to promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework and pay more attention to price-based regulation [5]. - The US Senate passed the appropriation bill, and the House will vote on it [1][5]. - Trump plans to reduce tariffs with Switzerland and India [1].