商品期货早班车-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market situation is complex, with different commodities showing different trends and risks [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Overnight prices rose slightly, with London gold at $4,125.67/oz. ADP data showed a decline in US private - sector jobs, and there were various inventory changes. Suggest buying at the lower support [2]. - Silver: Suggest reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - Copper: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and weak ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply was tight, and short - term demand was weak. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [3]. - Aluminum: The main contract price decreased by 0.30%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased. In the traditional consumption off - season, prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to overseas supply concerns [3]. - Alumina: The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. Supply was stable, and demand was high. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - Zinc: The main contract price decreased by 0.11%. Supply was tight domestically but increased overseas. Consumption was in the off - season. Suggest selling short at high prices [4]. - Lead: The main contract price decreased by 0.06%. Supply was stable, and demand improved slightly. Suggest interval operation [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract price decreased by 1.18%. Supply was supported by polysilicon, and demand was stable. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and consider buying at low prices [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract price decreased by 0.8%. Supply increased slightly, and demand increased significantly. It is expected to go into de - stocking in November. Suggest buying at low prices cautiously and consider selling put options [4]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main contract price decreased by 3.33%. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. The November storage platform progress is uncertain. Suggest waiting and seeing [5]. - Tin: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [5]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main contract price increased by 2 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and demand improved marginally. Supply decreased significantly. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 2,990 - 3,040 yuan/ton [6]. - Iron Ore: The main contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 740 - 770 yuan/ton [6]. - Coking Coal: The main contract price decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Supply was stable, and demand improved. The global inventory is expected to remain high. US soybeans are strong, and domestic ones are relatively strong. Short - term focus on the USDA report, and medium - term depends on tariff policies and production [7]. - Corn: Futures prices continued to rise. Inventory was low, and demand was strong. New production is expected to increase, and costs will decrease. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Suggest waiting and seeing [7]. - Sugar: The 01 contract price decreased by 0.04%. Globally, supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestically, the market rebounded due to news. Suggest shorting in the futures market and selling call options [7]. - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and domestic prices oscillated downwards. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with an interval strategy of 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton [7]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian market rebounded slightly. Supply increased, and demand increased. Near - term inventory is accumulating, and long - term production is expected to decrease seasonally. Suggest a reverse spread strategy and focus on production and policies [8]. - Eggs: Futures prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After Double Eleven, prices are expected to oscillate in an interval [8]. - Hogs: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Apples: The main contract price increased by 0.76%. Supply was affected by quality and timing, and demand was optimistic. Suggest waiting and seeing [8]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [9]. - PTA: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was large. PX was in balance, and PTA was slightly de - stocking. Suggest taking profit on long positions and shorting processing fees in the long term [10]. - Rubber: The main contract price increased by 0.33%. Raw material prices were stable, and inventory increased. Suggest an oscillating operation [10]. - PP: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [10]. - MEG: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a medium - low level. Demand entered the off - season. Suggest shorting at high prices [10]. - Crude Oil: Prices rose. Supply faced risks from Russian oil and OPEC+ production, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short at high prices if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day [11]. - Styrene: Prices fell slightly. Supply and demand contradictions were large. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [11].