氯碱日报：PVC价格再次下探-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The supply side has a slight reduction in supply due to new device maintenance, but new production capacity is gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply. The demand side has a decline in downstream开工 and general purchasing sentiment. The export side exchanges volume for price, and export orders are weakening. The inventory is high, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to relevant policies in the future [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side has an increase in开工 due to less device maintenance, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity. The demand side has stable orders from Shandong alumina, but the overall demand may weaken in the off - season. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the procurement demand of new alumina plants [3]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,572 yuan/ton (-42), the East China basis is -42 yuan/ton (+32), and the South China basis is 18 yuan/ton (+22) [1]. - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide method offers 4,530 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide method offers 4,590 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -100 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -769 yuan/ton (-6), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is 8.3 dollars/ton (+3.5) [1]. - Inventory and Capacity Utilization: The in - plant PVC inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1), the PVC calcium carbide method capacity utilization is 80.17% (+3.70%), the PVC ethylene method capacity utilization is 77.23% (-1.27%), and the overall PVC capacity utilization is 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,357 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 112 yuan/ton (-39) [1]. - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,478 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 854.5 yuan/ton (+8.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -7.47 yuan/ton (-51.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 811.83 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and Capacity Utilization: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (-2.78), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda capacity utilization is 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The alumina capacity utilization is 85.25% (-0.61%), the dyeing and printing capacity utilization in East China is 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber capacity utilization is 89.60% (-0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The supply side has a slight reduction in supply due to new device maintenance, but new production capacity is gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - The demand side has a decline in downstream开工, and the overall purchasing sentiment is general. The export side exchanges volume for price, and export orders are weakening. The inventory is high, and the futures price is under pressure [3]. Caustic Soda - The supply side has an increase in开工 due to less device maintenance, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity [3]. - The demand side has stable orders from Shandong alumina, but the overall demand may weaken in the off - season. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the procurement demand of new alumina plants [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Range - bound and volatile, choose the right time for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Range - bound and volatile [5]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on SH12 and short on SH01 when the price difference is low [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5].