液化石油气日报：供应边际收紧，盘面震荡偏强运行-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - The domestic LPG spot market generally continued to rise, and the market atmosphere improved marginally. However, the overall supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with a global oversupply of LPG. The PG futures price had short - term support but limited upside potential [1] Market Analysis - On November 11, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4420; Northeast market, 3960 - 4050; North China market, 4200 - 4420; East China market, 4250 - 4400; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4810; Northwest market, 4140 - 4200; South China market, 4400 - 4500 [1] - In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were stable at 543 dollars/ton and 542 dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton and 4228 yuan/ton in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were stable at 538 dollars/ton and 537 dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton and 4189 yuan/ton in RMB [1] - The overseas market prices remained relatively stable. The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in Shandong increased, and the price of post - ether C4 remained stable after a sharp increase. The downstream chemical demand was acceptable, while the combustion demand was poor. The downstream's ability to accept high - priced post - ether C4 decreased, which restricted the market's rebound space [1] - The supply tightened marginally due to refinery maintenance and a decline in arrivals, but the overall supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with a global oversupply of LPG [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]