聚烯烃日报：煤价回落明显，成本端受拖累-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance in the PE market persists, with high supply, limited demand, and weak cost support, resulting in significant short - term price pressure [3] - The PP market also has supply - demand contradictions, with weak cost support. It is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, but the downward driving force is limited [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6760 yuan/ton (-42), and that of the PP main contract is 6429 yuan/ton (-51). LL and PP spot prices in different regions have different changes, and their basis also shows corresponding fluctuations [2] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%) [2] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 183.3 yuan/ton (-100.9), the PP oil - based production profit is - 406.7 yuan/ton (-100.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 107.7 yuan/ton (-16.9) [2] - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit is - 75.0 yuan/ton (-67.4), the PP import profit is - 168.0 yuan/ton (+131.1), and the PP export profit is - 5.4 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [2] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.8% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.5% (+0.9%) [2] Market Analysis - PE: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues. The decline in coking coal and coke prices drags down the cost, causing the polyethylene futures price to continue to bottom out. The supply is expected to increase, the demand support is limited, and both the oil - based and coal - based cost supports are weak [3] - PP: There are still supply - demand contradictions. The cost support weakens in the short term, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates in the upstream and middle reaches. The upward trend is suppressed by supply and demand, and it will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term, but the downward driving force is limited [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy; the market may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [4] - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when the price is high [4] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]