Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Core Viewpoints - The overseas aluminum market has a structural shortage. The US aluminum spot premium has reached a new high, indicating that overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and there is still strength and resilience in overseas consumption. The overall domestic supply and demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, but the absolute value of social inventory is still low, and it is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is positive, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio, with limited downward potential. If the social inventory is smoothly depleted, the upward space for aluminum prices is expected to open [6]. - For alumina, the end of the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of bauxite shipments, along with the release of inventory, increase the supply pressure. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the spot price is supported by purchases, there are currently no bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the price is undervalued, but there are potential disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 130 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,490 yuan/ton, with a change of 120 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 150 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,725 yuan/ton, closed at 21,665 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton. The highest price was 21,765 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 185,011 lots, and the open interest was 382,366 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 11, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, with a change of 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,142 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,225 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,795 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,960 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,831 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton (0.11% change). The highest price was 2,838 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,810 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 221,905 lots, and the open interest was 405,788 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 11, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use scrap aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical scrap aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 59,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 142 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The US aluminum spot premium has reached a new high, and the structural problems caused by tariffs and trade wars are intensifying. The overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and there is still strength and resilience in overseas consumption. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The reduction in production at an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant is expected to last for 11 - 12 months. The domestic social inventory has not shown a trend of depletion, and the spot premium has not recovered, but the absolute value of social inventory is low, and it is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is positive, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio, with limited downward potential. Attention should be paid to the depletion rhythm of social inventory [6]. Alumina - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the supply pressure is increasing. The decline in ore prices has not improved the smelting losses of alumina. There has been no large - scale reduction in production on the supply side, and the expected new production capacity still exists. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the spot price is supported by purchases, there are currently no bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the price is undervalued, but there are potential disturbances in overseas mines [8].
新能源及有色金属日报：海外铝存在结构性紧缺问题-20251112
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-12 05:19