油脂日报：阿根廷大豆播种陆续开始，油脂震荡运行-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with favorable weather in the producing areas, and Argentina has also started sowing, with over 4% progress. The USDA is expected to release a monthly supply and demand report this week, which will revise the September US soybean yield data and have a significant impact on the market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,770 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.92% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,238 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,775 yuan/ton, a change of +188 yuan or +1.96% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,740 yuan/ton, a change of +140 yuan or +1.63%, and the spot basis was P01 - 30 yuan, a change of +60 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,430 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton or +0.48%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 192 yuan, a change of +30 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,130 yuan/ton, a change of +190 yuan or +1.91%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 355 yuan, a change of +2 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Aggregation - Domestic soybean crushing: Last week, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills continued to decline significantly, falling short of market expectations and reaching a six - month low. The average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 52.94%, a decrease of 8.66% from the previous week's 61.60%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 1.9862 million tons, a decrease of 324,900 tons from the previous week's 2.3111 million tons. Among them, the crushing volume of domestic soybeans was 53,200 tons, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans was 1.933 million tons. This week, the expected soybean processing volume is expected to rise again to 2.3302 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.11% [2] - Imported grain and oil prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 501 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (December shipment) was 496 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 495 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: 238 cents/bushel for the Gulf of Mexico (December shipment), a decrease of 5 cents/bushel; 225 cents/bushel for the US West Coast (December shipment), a decrease of 20 cents/bushel; 220 cents/bushel for Brazilian ports (December shipment), an increase of 3 cents/bushel. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 536 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,144 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,138 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotes for imported rapeseed oil: 1,085 US dollars/ton for Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment), unchanged; 1,065 US dollars/ton for Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment), unchanged. The shipping freight from Southeast Asian palm oil (December shipment) to central China was 27 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the shipping freight from Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) to central China was 110 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the shipping freight from Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) to central China was 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - International production and export forecasts: As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, made from palm - oil - based fatty acid methyl esters (FAME). The Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025. From November 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.14% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and the output decreased by 2.16%. It is predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.26 million tons, higher than the previous week's 3.77 million tons; the expected export of soybean meal is 2.47 million tons, higher than the previous week's 2.23 million tons; the expected export of corn is 6.04 million tons, higher than the previous week's 5.57 million tons [2]