Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - The current macro data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased [6]. Group 2: Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat. The 30 - year main contract remained flat at 116.300 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01% to 108.475 yuan, the 5 - year main contract remained flat at 105.935 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.462 yuan. The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 11, with a net investment of 2863 billion yuan [5]. - Investment Outlook: It is expected that treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [7]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.84%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.58%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.79%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.30% [9]. - Investment Outlook: The risk of a significant decline in the stock index is not high, and investors can choose the right time to go long [10]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 948.88, up 1.38%, and the night - session closed at 944.18; the silver main contract closed at 11,880, up 1.37%, and the night - session closed at 11921 [11]. - Investment Outlook: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent increase in precious metals has been large, and the pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on long positions, investors can wait and see [12]. Group 5: Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2940 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3060 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - roll was quoted between 3260 - 3280 yuan/ton [14]. - Investment Outlook: In the medium term, the price of rebar is likely to remain weak. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [14]. Group 6: Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 773 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 673 yuan/ton [16]. - Investment Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened. Technically, it may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels and pay attention to position management [16]. Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures corrected significantly [18]. - Investment Outlook: Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections and pay attention to position management [18]. Group 8: Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.41% to 5764 yuan/ton; the silicon - iron main contract fell 1.05% to 5488 yuan/ton [20]. - Investment Outlook: In the short term, the supply of ferroalloys may continue to be in excess. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss - making range again [20]. Group 9: Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly and closed below the 5 - day moving average [22]. - Investment Outlook: The Baker Hughes rig count has increased three times in a row, but the increase in US crude oil production is still a long - way off. Russia's oil production is below the quota, which is beneficial to the crude oil price. OPEC will suspend production increases next year, which supports the oil price. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the crude oil main contract [23]. Group 10: Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward with a weak trend [25]. - Investment Outlook: The market expects sufficient fuel oil supply, which is negative for the price. However, the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors should temporarily wait and see [26]. Group 11: Polyolefins - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a weak decline, and the Yuyao LLDPE price was slightly adjusted [28]. - Investment Outlook: It is expected that after the e - commerce activities end, the lack of new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent production. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [28]. Group 12: Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.39%, and the price in Shandong remained stable at 11000 yuan/ton [30]. - Investment Outlook: It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate widely in the next cycle, with limited downward space. The market should focus on the raw material market and supply - side changes [30]. Group 13: Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.33%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract rose 0.37%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14850 yuan/ton [32]. - Investment Outlook: The market should focus on the weather conditions in the producing areas and demand expectations. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [32]. Group 14: PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.74%, and the spot price was adjusted down by 10 yuan/ton [34]. - Investment Outlook: The current oversupply situation of PVC continues, but the space for further significant decline may be limited. The market should focus on changes in the supply side [34]. Group 15: Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.26%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted down to 1570 yuan/ton [36]. - Investment Outlook: It is expected that the urea market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [36]. Group 16: p - Xylene (PX) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.62%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 240 US dollars/ton, and the short - flow profit remained stable [38]. - Investment Outlook: In the short term, the PX supply - demand structure has improved, and it may oscillate and adjust with support below. Investors can participate in the range, pay attention to controlling positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and focus on macro - policy changes [39]. Group 17: PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract fell 0.51%. The PTA load was adjusted to 76.4%, and the polyester load was at 91.5% [40]. - Investment Outlook: In the short term, PTA may oscillate. Investors should view it cautiously, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. Group 18: Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.55%. The overall ethylene glycol operating load was 72.44%, and the inventory in the East China main port increased [41]. - Investment Outlook: In the short term, ethylene glycol may be under pressure. The market should focus on port inventory and supply changes [42]. Group 19: Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 0.87%. The short - fiber device load rose to 97.5% [43]. - Investment Outlook: In the short term, short - fiber may oscillate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Group 20: Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract fell 0.63%. The bottle chips processing fee was adjusted to 420 yuan/ton [44]. - Investment Outlook: Recently, the raw material price has support, the bottle chips load remains stable, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected that the market will oscillate with the cost side [44]. Group 21: Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 1.38% to 86540 yuan/ton [45]. - Investment Outlook: In the context of strong supply and demand, the social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually decreasing. The market should focus on the sustainability of consumption [45]. Group 22: Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86770 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [46]. - Investment Outlook: The global copper mine supply remains tight, but the current copper price is at a historical high. There is a risk of a phased correction. The market expects the price to oscillate at a high level [46]. Group 23: Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21740 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the alumina main contract closed at 2826 yuan/ton, unchanged [48]. - Investment Outlook: The aluminum market has a relatively good fundamental situation, but there is a risk of a phased correction. The price is expected to run at a high level [48]. Group 24: Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22655 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [51]. - Investment Outlook: There is no strong macro - driving factor, and the fundamentals lack the power to drive a unilateral zinc price trend. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and investors can buy low and sell high [51]. Group 25: Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17520 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [53]. - Investment Outlook: The domestic lead ingot inventory may increase, which will suppress the upward movement of the lead price. At the same time, there is cost support below. The lead price is expected to oscillate and adjust [53]. Group 26: Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 1.14% to 290700 yuan/ton [54]. - Investment Outlook: The supply is generally tight, and the demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [54]. Group 27: Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.25% to 119150 yuan/ton [55]. - Investment Outlook: The first - grade nickel market is in an oversupply situation. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [55]. Group 28: Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.10% to 3054 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.34% to 8238 yuan/ton [56]. - Investment Outlook: The soybean supply is relatively loose, and there is cost support at a low level. For soybean meal, investors can consider leaving long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, they can consider long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [57]. Group 29: Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day, supported by the strength of Chicago soybean oil, but was pressured by weather concerns and weak November export data [58]. - Investment Outlook: Investors can consider buying on corrections [60]. Group 30: Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed was closed. In China, the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels compared to the same period in the past seven years [61]. - Investment Outlook: Investors can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [62]. Group 31: Cotton - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly, and overnight, foreign cotton fell 0.4% due to seasonal harvesting pressure [63]. - Investment Outlook: In the short term, the international cotton price is restricted by seasonal acquisition pressure and lacks upward drivers. Domestically, the supply pressure is high. It is expected that the cotton price will be weak [64]. Group 32: Sugar - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded oscillatingly, and overnight, foreign raw sugar oscillated at a low level [66]. - Investment Outlook: Abroad, Brazil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle, but India has strong production - increase expectations. Domestically, there will be pressure from both domestic and imported sugar in the future. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [69]. Group 33: Apples - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The opening price this year is higher than last year, and the inventory is lower than last year [71]. - Investment Outlook: The price is expected to run strongly [73]. Group 34: Hogs - Market Performance: Yesterday, the national average price of hogs was 11.87 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan. The main contract fell 1.80% to 11755 yuan/ton [74]. - Investment Outlook: In the second half of the month, the supply pressure may gradually materialize. The market should follow the marginal changes in the consumption side [75]. Group 35: Eggs - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan, and in the main selling areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan. The main contract fell 0.94% to 3152 yuan/500kg [76]. - Investment Outlook: In November, the egg supply may remain at a high level, but the supply side may improve marginally. After a short - term boost in consumption, it may return to a weak expectation. Investors can consider adding short positions on rebounds [77]. Group 36: Corn and Corn Starch - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.93% to 2177 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.93% to 2490 yuan/ton [78]. - Investment Outlook: The new - season corn in the northern main producing areas has a good harvest, and there is pressure on the corn price. Corn starch may follow the corn market. It is advisable to wait and see [79].
早间评论-20251112
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-11-12 05:20