有色金属月度策略：Metal Futures Daily Strategy-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for each metal variety: - Copper: Try to gradually buy on dips for Shanghai copper futures, with a short - term upside pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a downside support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - Zinc: Consider buying on dips and selling out - of - the - money put options. The upside pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and the short - term downside support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [5]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Hold long positions for Shanghai aluminum, with an upside pressure range of 21,800 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,800 - 21,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, adopt a wait - and - see approach, with an upside pressure range of 3,000 - 3,200 and a downside support range of 2,600 - 2,700. For recycled aluminum alloy, take a bullish view, with an upside pressure range of 21,500 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,500 - 20,800 [6]. - Tin: Adopt a bullish view on range - bound fluctuations. The upside pressure range is 290,000 - 300,000, and the downside support range is 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the money put options for protection [7]. - Lead: Continue to use the strategy of selling both call and put options in a wide - range. The short - term downside support is around 17,300 - 17,400, and the upside pressure is around 17,500 - 17,600 [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, consider selling out - of - the money put options and pay attention to whether the volatility rebounds from a low level. The upside pressure is around 120,000 - 121,000 yuan, and the downside support is around 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. For stainless steel, it is in a range - bound consolidation. The support level is around 12,400 - 12,500, and the upside pressure is around 12,800 - 13,000 [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The expectation of the end of the US government shutdown boosts market risk appetite, and China's PPI turning positive for the first time also drives the rebound of industrial products. Non - ferrous metals show a fluctuating recovery [12]. - In the short term, risk assets were under pressure last week due to the economic slowdown in the US and China and the tightening of US dollar liquidity. However, after the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, market risk appetite increased, and the tightness of US dollar liquidity is expected to ease. China's inflation data in October improved, and the Shanghai copper market rebounded during the day [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the siphon effect of the US market still exists, making it difficult to solve the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. China's fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative in the first three quarters, and external pressure is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the macro - level is expected to take further measures to boost copper demand. With the increase in smelter maintenance and the tightening of raw material supply, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to decline continuously in the fourth quarter. As copper demand enters the seasonal peak season, China's copper inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the copper price center is expected to rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The possible end of the US government shutdown and China's PPI turning positive boost market risk appetite. Copper, aluminum, and tin are relatively strong, alumina has a strong willingness to rebound, lead and zinc are rising slowly, and nickel and stainless steel are bottom - grinding. Pay attention to the fundamental resonance driving changes [12]. - This Week's Focus: Pay attention to China's retail sales, real estate development investment, and social financing data. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown situation changes and whether CPI and PPI data are released as scheduled [12]. - Variety Strategies: Each metal variety has its own supply - demand situation, price range, and investment strategies, as detailed in the investment rating section above [4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Market Review - Copper closed at 86,480 yuan with a 0.63% increase; zinc closed at 22,670 yuan with a 0.22% decrease; aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan with a 0.46% increase; alumina closed at 2,829 yuan with a 1.65% increase; tin closed at 286,560 yuan with a 1.08% increase; lead closed at 17,505 yuan with a 0.49% increase; nickel closed at 119,680 yuan with a 0.20% increase; stainless steel closed at 12,605 yuan with a 0.32% increase; and cast aluminum alloy closed at 21,105 yuan with a 0.45% increase [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes, affected by factors such as the increase of long - position main players, the decrease of short - position main players, and non - main - force capital influence [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy, are provided [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Chain - For each metal variety, there are corresponding charts showing inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc., such as copper's exchange inventory change and copper concentrate refining fee; zinc's inventory change and zinc concentrate processing fee change; etc. [24][27] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Arbitrage - There are charts showing the arbitrage - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium - discount between Shanghai copper and London copper; zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium - discount; etc. [56][57] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Options - There are charts showing the option - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's option historical volatility and weighted implied volatility; zinc's historical volatility and option weighted implied volatility; etc. [72][74]