中辉有色观点-20251112

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Relatively strong [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation [1] Core Views - Gold has support due to eliminated US government shutdown risk and liquidity crisis, but short - term upside is limited. Long - term strategic allocation value remains due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank buying [1][2]. - Silver's long - term long position is recommended as the London market squeeze risk is removed, and global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips near the moving average [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure as short - term supply is tight while demand weakens in the off - season, and long - term supply is expected to increase while demand decreases [1][9]. - Lead's price is under pressure in the short - term as production recovers and imports arrive, but consumption is dragged down by mid - large lead battery enterprise production cuts [1]. - Tin's price may rise and then fall in the short - term as overseas tin mine复产 is slow and downstream traditional electronic consumption demand is poor [1]. - Aluminum's price is likely to rise and then fall as overseas production cuts occur, but domestic production remains high and consumption is transitioning from peak to off - season [1][13]. - Nickel's price is relatively weak as overseas inventory is at a high level, domestic inventory accumulates, and downstream stainless steel consumption is weak [1][17]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range in November as the supply is in a tight balance, and downstream demand provides some support [1]. - Polysilicon is cautiously bearish as production cuts are in line with expectations, and downstream price cuts cause negative feedback [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to remain at a high level as the supply - demand situation improves, and inventory has been decreasing for 12 weeks [1][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Liquidity crisis is resolved, but data is missing, providing support for precious metals. Short - term upward movement is limited due to lack of new drivers [2]. - Basic Logic: US government shutdown is approaching an end; Japan's monetary policy may shift; UK employment data is poor, and rate cuts are expected. China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves. Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [2][3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term value - based positions should be held. Short - term, domestic gold has support at 920, and silver has strong support at 11400 [3]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level [6]. - Industrial Logic: In Q3 2025, global major copper mine enterprises' production decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and this may continue in Q4. Refined copper supply is shrinking. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream开工 is weak. Copper is included in the US critical minerals list [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: With a weakening US dollar, copper is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips near the moving average and hold long - term strategic positions. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [9]. - Industrial Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is tightening in the short - term, and processing fees are falling. Consumption is in the off - season, and both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Long positions should be closed at high prices. In the long - term, sell on rallies as supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum price rises and then falls, and alumina is relatively weak [12]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and domestic consumption is transitioning from peak to off - season. Alumina market is in an oversupply situation in the short - term [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, take profits on long positions in Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to downstream processing enterprise开工 changes [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel price continues to fall, and stainless steel is weak [16]. - Industrial Logic: Global nickel inventory is accumulating, and stainless steel terminal demand is weakening. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opens high and closes low with a slight reduction in positions [20]. - Industrial Logic: The supply - demand situation remains tight, and inventory has been decreasing for 12 weeks. New production lines contribute to output growth, and terminal demand is strong [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits on long positions near the previous high [22].