中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For steel products, after continuous decline, they are testing cost support [3] - For iron ore, supply is shrinking, contradictions are accumulating, and the ore price is firm [7] - For coke, the short - term market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to leave the market and observe [8][9] - For coking coal, the supply - demand pattern has not been broken, and it is advisable to leave the market and observe [11][12] - For ferroalloys, the November steel procurement has started, and attention should be paid to the final pricing by steel mills [14][15] Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - Rebar: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, showing the off - season feature of weak supply and demand. Inventory decreased month - on - month, with a decline weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamental situation is generally balanced but weak. Iron - water production continued to decline, similar to the same period last year, and the marginal support for raw materials weakened. It has fallen near the previous low, testing the support at 3000, and may fluctuate at a low level [1][4][5] - Hot - rolled coil: Apparent demand and production both declined, and inventory increased slightly against the seasonal trend, indicating certain inventory pressure. Iron - water production continued to decline, weakening the demand support for raw materials. It operates in a mid - term range, and may fluctuate after continuous decline in the short term [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Iron - water production decreased month - on - month, but some blast furnaces are expected to resume production, so iron - water production is expected to rise. Steel mill maintenance information has increased, and attention should be paid to its implementation. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ores has shrunk, and the static fundamental situation is neutral to bullish. The ore price is firm in the short term, and it is recommended to stop losses on short positions [1][6][7] Coke - The coke market has started the fourth round of price increases. Recently, the profits of coke enterprises have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. Iron - water production has declined again, steel mill profits have been poor recently, and blast furnace maintenance has increased. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay. After the rapid decline in the futures market, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to leave the market and observe [1][8][9] Coking Coal - The National Development and Reform Commission has deployed energy supply guarantee work for the heating season. Domestically, the coal mine start - up rate has decreased again month - on - month. Currently, coal mine inventory is low, pre - sale orders are sufficient, and overall sales are still good. The seasonal decline in iron - water production suppresses the upward space of the raw material end. The current supply - demand pattern has not been broken. After the rapid decline in the futures market, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to leave the market and observe [1][11][12] Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) - Ferromanganese: The supply in the production area has decreased slightly but is still at a high level compared to the same period. Inventory has continued to increase compared to the previous period, but the increase has slowed down. The November steel procurement by downstream has started, and a landmark steel mill plans to purchase 16,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous month. Attention should be paid to the final pricing. In the short term, the cost side provides some support for the price, and it is cautiously bullish [1][14][15] - Ferrosilicon: The start - up rate in the production area has continued to increase, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase significantly compared to the previous period. In the short term, the cost side provides some support for the price, but its own fundamental situation has become looser. It is cautiously bullish, with a price range of [5400, 5580] [1][14][15]