黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日）-20251112

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Iron ore shows an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term due to factors such as changes in supply, demand, and inventory [1] - Coking coal supply is tight, and the downstream has different procurement attitudes, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Coke supply is affected by cost, and demand is influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese silicon has a complex fundamental situation with multiple factors intertwined, and the overall is in an oscillating pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon's current fundamental support is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with the black market in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Sections Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price decreased, the spot price dropped slightly, and the demand entered the off - season. The steel mills' losses expanded, and the cost support weakened, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Iron ore: The futures price oscillated, the supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, the demand (iron - water output) declined, and the inventory increased, resulting in an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term [1] - Coking coal: The futures price fell, the supply was tight, the downstream procurement attitudes varied, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Coke: The futures price declined, the supply was affected by cost, and the demand was influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese silicon: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production decreased slightly, the demand (steel recruitment) declined, the cost was stable with electricity price adjustment expected, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is in an oscillating pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production cost increased significantly, the supply was relatively stable, the demand (steel recruitment) decreased, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is expected to fluctuate with the black market [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 64.0 with a - 6.0 change [4] - Basis: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the 01 contract basis of rebar is 165.0 with a 19.0 change [4] - Spot prices: The latest spot prices and their changes of various varieties in different regions are given, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0 with no change [4] - Profits and spreads: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit) and cross - variety spreads (such as the coil - rebar spread) is provided, for example, the rebar disk profit is - 119.5 with a 13.6 change [4] Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main contract prices: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties over the years, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - 3.2 Main contract basis: Graphs display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different months, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - 3.3 Inter - period contract spreads: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties, like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][32] - 3.4 Cross - variety contract spreads: Graphs show the cross - variety spreads of main contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [43][45][47] - 3.5 Rebar profits: Graphs display the profits of rebar's main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin has rich experience in resource - product research and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is good at investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [55]