贵金属日评：美国私营部门就业表现偏弱支撑贵金属价格-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of the US private - sector employment supports the precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December has increased due to factors such as the decrease in the number of private - sector employees in October. Geopolitical risks and the continuous purchase of gold by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 933.02 yuan/g, the trading volume was 63048.00, and the position volume was - 882.00. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 1.30, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 2.38 [1] - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 11865.00 yuan/10g, the trading volume was 725114.00, and the position volume was 4243002.00. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 40.00, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 15.00 [1] - COMEX International Gold Futures: The closing price was 4133.20 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 223800.00, and the position volume was 291850.00. The inventory was 37575139.58 troy ounces [1] - London Gold Spot: The price was 4123.30 US dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 1041.78 tons, and iShare Gold ETF were 482.31 tons [1] - COMEX International Silver Futures: The closing price was 51.08 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 69857.00, and the position volume was 94353.00 [1] - London Silver Spot: The price was 51.24 US dollars/ounce [1] 3.2 Price Ratios - The price ratio of gold to silver: Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 79.87, New York gold/New York silver was 80.92, and London gold spot/London silver spot was 81.74 [1] 3.3 Other Commodity and Financial Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was 458.80 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 63.94 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 60.05 US dollars/barrel [1] - Copper: Shanghai copper futures were 86630.00 yuan/ton, and LME spot copper was 10840.00 US dollars/ton [1] - Steel and Iron Ore: Shanghai rebar was 3044.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 763.00 yuan/ton [1] - Interest Rates: The inter - bank lending rate SHIBO was 1.32, and the 10 - year US Treasury nominal yield was 4.1300 [1] - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 99.4792, the US dollar to RMB central parity rate was 7.0866, and the euro to RMB central parity rate was 8.1986 [1] - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index was 4018.5972, the S&P 500 was 6851.9700, the UK FTSE 100 was 9787.1500, etc. [1] 3.4 Important Information - According to ADP, the US private sector lost an average of 11250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25th. The White House National Economic Council Director said that some US data for October may be lost forever [1] 3.5 Long - Short Logic - The Republican Party's agreement to vote on extending the ACA subsidies in December is expected to lead to some cash outflows from the US Treasury's general account. The decrease in private - sector employment in October has increased the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December. Geopolitical risks, the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and the continuous purchase of gold by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1] 3.6 Trading Strategy - It is advisable to go long when the price drops. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890, and the resistance level is around 960 - 1000. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45, and the resistance level is around 55 - 60. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9500 - 10500, and the resistance level is around 12000 - 12500 [1]