中辉能化观点-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish but with weakening expectations [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously chase up but beware of downside risks [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core driver of the oil market is the supply surplus in the off - season. Although short - term factors such as strong refined oil profits and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause oil prices to strengthen, the overall downward pressure on oil prices is large. Other energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal characteristics, showing different trends [2][9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market review: Overnight international oil prices strengthened short - term, with WTI rising 1.43%, Brent rising 1.72%, and SC falling 0.17% [7][8]. - Basic logic: The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause expansion in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced the official selling price for Asian buyers in December. Demand from Russia to India has decreased, and US inventories have changed [9][10]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold previous short positions. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 475] [11]. LPG - Market review: On November 11, the PG main contract closed at 4,332 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [12][13]. - Basic logic: It is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Although oil prices have rebounded, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has shown some resilience, and inventories at ports and factories have declined [14]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. PG focuses on the range of [4300 - 4400] [15]. L - Market review: The L01 closing price (main contract) was 6,760 yuan/ton, down 0.6% [17]. - Basic logic: Spot price decline has slowed, and the market has shifted to a contango structure. Supply is loose, demand for replenishment is insufficient, and cost support is weak [19]. - Strategy recommendation: Reduce short positions at the short - term stop - falling level. Be bearish on the medium - to - long - term rebound. L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - Market review: The PP01 closing price (main contract) was 6,429 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - Basic logic: The fundamentals are weak following the decline in coking coal prices. Inventory pressure is high, and oil prices still face a downward risk in the medium term [23]. - Strategy recommendation: Reduce short positions at the short - term stop - falling level. Be bearish on the medium - to - long - term rebound. PP focuses on the range of [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - Market review: The V01 closing price (main contract) was 4,572 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [25]. - Basic logic: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although inventories are high, low valuations limit further downside. The market is in a high - premium state [27]. - Strategy recommendation: Industries should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. V focuses on the range of [4500 - 4650] [27]. PX - Basic logic: Supply from domestic and overseas plants has increased. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains loose [28]. - Strategy recommendation: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side basis. For arbitrage, focus on expanding downstream processing margins (i.e., long PTA, short PX). PX focuses on the range of [6700 - 6810] [29]. PTA - Market review: TA05 was 4,728 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; TA11 was 4,616 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; TA01 was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [30]. - Basic logic: Processing margins are low. Later, the intensity of plant maintenance is expected to increase, and supply pressure is expected to ease. Downstream demand has improved slightly, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. Oil prices are under pressure [31]. - Strategy recommendation: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side basis at low prices. For arbitrage, focus on expanding TA processing margins (i.e., long PTA, short PX). TA focuses on the range of [4620 - 4685] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - Market review: EG05 was 3,942 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; EG11 was 3,848 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; EG01 was 4,019 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [33]. - Basic logic: Domestic plant maintenance has increased, and new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants will increase supply pressure. Downstream demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November, and it lacks upward drivers [34]. - Strategy recommendation: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. EG focuses on the range of [3855 - 3920] [35]. Methanol - Basic logic: High inventories suppress price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, demand is average, and cost support is weak. The fundamentals remain weak [38]. - Strategy recommendation: It is in a weak oscillation. Hold short positions cautiously. For arbitrage, focus on the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [4]. Urea - Market review: UR05 was 1,734 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; UR09 was 1,753 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; UR01 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [41]. - Basic logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand has improved slightly, inventories are at a high level, and exports have maintained a high growth rate. The market has a ceiling and a floor [42]. - Strategy recommendation: Be wary of the risk of the market falling after rising. UR focuses on the range of [1628 - 1658] [43]. Natural Gas - Market review: On November 11, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.96% [45][46]. - Basic logic: As the temperature drops, the demand for combustion and heating increases, providing support for gas prices. Supply is sufficient, and inventories in the US have increased [47]. - Strategy recommendation: Although the demand season provides support, supply is sufficient, and upward pressure increases. NG focuses on the range of [4.415 - 4.581] [48]. Asphalt - Basic logic: The cost of crude oil has decreased with the release of geopolitical risks. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the demand season is coming to an end. Valuations are high [6]. - Strategy recommendation: Continue to hold short positions [6]. Glass - Basic logic: The fundamentals are weak. Supply is unlikely to decline further, inventories are high, and domestic demand is weak [6]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short - term, cold - repair provides support. In the medium - to - long - term, be bearish on rebounds [6]. Soda Ash - Basic logic: The increase in photovoltaic melting volume and plant maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. Inventories are still high, and the supply will remain loose in the long - term [6]. - Strategy recommendation: Industries should conduct sell - hedging at high prices. Be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds [6].