光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures prices trended weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,640 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.26%. The spot market was mostly stable, with individual regional prices fluctuating slightly. The industry's daily output remained stable at 195,100 tons. Demand was weak, and the market was in a policy and news vacuum before the Indian tender results were announced. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range, and the recommended view is wide - range oscillation [1]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,215 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.33%. The spot market quotations were mostly stable, with the ex - factory price in the northwest region decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. Multiple enterprises reduced production or operated at reduced loads, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 84.07%. The cost support strengthened, but due to excessive fundamental pressure, the market lacked a driving force for a trending upward movement. It is recommended to approach it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - Glass futures prices continued to be weak on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,053 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.86%. The spot market trend remained weak. Glass supply was stable, and the demand sentiment did not decline further. The industry was pessimistic about high inventories and future demand. The market is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - Urea: Futures prices were weak, spot was mostly stable, production was stable, demand was weak, and the market was in a vacuum period. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range, and attention should be paid to spot transactions, export dynamics, and Indian tender results [1]. - Soda Ash: Futures prices oscillated weakly, spot was mostly stable with a decrease in the northwest, production decreased, cost support strengthened, but the upward driving force was lacking. It is recommended to use a wide - range oscillation approach, and pay attention to raw material and freight costs, downstream production capacity changes, and purchasing power [1]. - Glass: Futures prices were weak, spot was also weak, supply was stable, demand sentiment did not decline further, but the industry was pessimistic. It is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and attention should be paid to capital flows, spot transactions, coal prices, year - end rush - work demand, macro - sentiment, and policies [1]. Market Information - Urea: On November 11, the futures warehouse receipts increased by 397 to 6,812, with 586 valid forecasts. The daily output was 195,100 tons, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 14,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, a 3.68 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [4]. - Soda Ash and Glass: On November 11, soda ash futures warehouse receipts decreased by 368 to 6,999, with 1,304 valid forecasts; glass futures warehouse receipts increased by 285 to 546. Soda ash spot prices in the northwest region decreased. The soda ash industry's daily operating rate dropped to 84.07%. The average price of the float glass market decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,149 yuan/ton, and the daily output remained unchanged at 159,100 tons [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different products. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][11][18][19]