国富期货早间看点：SPPOMA马棕11月前10日产量环比降2.16%，Anec巴西大豆11月料出口426万吨-20251112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybean, and their by - products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather in crop - producing areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and macro - economic news both globally and in China. Additionally, it shows the capital flow in the futures market and provides an arbitrage tracking overview. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4150.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 0.27% [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of multiple currency pairs like the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are given. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.44, down 0.12% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For example, for DCE palm oil 2601 in North China, the spot price is 8890, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different regions such as the US Gulf, US West, and Brazil are presented. For example, the CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 250 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 506 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - Brazil will continue to have rainfall this week with temperatures near normal. Different states have different weather patterns, and later in the week, southern Brazil may become drier [5]. - Argentina may have precipitation in the next two days, but the weather may turn drier later. If the temperature rises, the weather conditions for corn and soybeans may change significantly [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - CIMB Securities predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons in November due to a 10% month - on - month decline in exports, and production is expected to fall by 8.0% month - on - month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [7]. - SPPOMA data shows that from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [7]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks in the USDA November report is 124.21 million tons, with a range of 122.5 - 126 million tons, compared to the USDA's September estimate of 123.99 million tons [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.266 billion bushels, with a range of 4.152 - 4.336 billion bushels; the average predicted yield is 53.1 bushels per acre, with a range of 51.7 - 54.0 bushels per acre; and the average predicted ending stocks are 304 million bushels, with a range of 187 - 494 million bushels [8]. - Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons, both higher than the previous week [8]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 1.1774562 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume 75% higher than that of November last year [8]. - Imea data shows that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 3 - 7 was 459.16 Brazilian reals per ton, lower than the previous week [9]. - As of November 9, 2025/26, the EU's palm oil imports were 1.01 million tons, soybeans imports were 4.15 million tons, and rapeseed imports were 1.31 million tons, all lower than the same period last year [9]. - The EU is considering delaying the implementation of its zero - deforestation law by one year to December 2026 [9]. - Germany's rapeseed industry association predicts that the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 will be between 1.1 - 1.15 million hectares, almost unchanged from 2025 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell slightly due to a decline in Capesize ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index decreased by 2.2%, while the Panamax ship freight index increased by 1.1% [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 11, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40,000 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous day. The overall oil mill operating rate was 53.51%, a 2.55% decrease from the previous day [12]. - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities was 16.04 yuan per kilogram, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 27.9% year - on - year decrease [12]. - On November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, a 0.01 - point decrease from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, a 0.01 - point increase from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan per kilogram, a 0.1% decrease from the previous day [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7% [14]. - ADP data shows different estimates of private - sector employment changes. One series shows a weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, while another series predicts an increase of 42,000 jobs in October [15]. - The US House Rules Committee will hold a meeting on November 11 (EST) to advance the government funding plan for a vote the next day [15]. - The year - on - year growth rate of US red - book commercial retail sales in the week ending November 3 was 5.9%, higher than the previous value of 5.7% [15]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in October was 98.2, lower than the expected 98.5 and the previous value of 98.8 [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0866, with a 10 - point increase (yuan depreciation) [17]. - On November 11, the People's Bank of China conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured [17]. - The PBC's Q3 2025 monetary policy report proposes to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, and improve the monetary policy framework [17]. - The US has suspended the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, which is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [17]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On November 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.554 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.118 billion yuan, including 795 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 463 million yuan in chemical futures, a net outflow of 622 million yuan in black - series futures, and 4.483 billion yuan in metal futures. Stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.44 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 356 million yuan [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific information provided in the given text about arbitrage tracking.