Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus expectation suppresses the sugar market, with India increasing sugar production and allowing exports, and ICE raw sugar under pressure. In the domestic market, Zheng sugar has limited upside potential due to factors such as old sugar inventory clearance and new sugar listing [2]. - Pulp futures are relatively strong, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and the future supply pressure in China may still be high. The upward movement and sustainability depend on the performance of the finished paper market [5]. - The demand improvement for double - offset paper is limited, and the upward driving force is weak, although there is some cost support from the pulp price increase [6]. - The cotton market, both domestically and internationally, is in a low - range fluctuation. The short - term upward potential is restricted by factors such as supply pressure and uncertain consumption recovery [8]. - For apples, the new - season initial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the futures price is expected to be oscillating strongly [9]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the expectation of production reduction, and the futures price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the new jujube opening price [10]. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Recommend buying on dips due to lower initial inventory year - on - year; also recommend closing short positions on dips because of high futures premium. Support range is 8500 - 8600, and pressure range is 9400 - 9500 [19]. - Jujube 2601: Aggressive investors can short on rallies around 9500 - 10500; cautious investors can hold a short 01 and long 05 spread position [11]. - Sugar 2601: Recommend shorting on rallies as supply pressure increases and domestic enterprises face old sugar inventory clearance. Support range is 5380 - 5400, and pressure range is 5510 - 5540 [2][19]. - Pulp 2601: Temporarily stay on the sidelines as the cost of warehouse receipts increases, but the supply remains high and the fundamental improvement is limited [5][19]. - Double - offset paper 2601: Temporarily stay on the sidelines as there is cost support from pulp price increase, but demand suppresses the price [6][19]. - Cotton 2601: Reduce short positions as the increase in new cotton production is slightly lower than expected and the price range has moved up slightly [8][19]. Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In September 2025, fresh apple exports were about 7.08 tons, up 3.50% month - on - month and down 6.32% year - on - year. As of November 5, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 698.42 tons, 14.14% lower than the same period last year. As of November 6, 2025, it was 682.74 tons, 17.05% lower than last year [20]. - Spot Market: In the Shandong production area, the purchase of late - maturing bagged Fuji is in the final stage, and small and medium - sized fruits have started to be shipped out. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage fruits have started to be packed and shipped out [20][21]. Jujube Market As of this week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9541 tons, up 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the purchasing enthusiasm and structure of buyers [22]. Sugar Market Brazil exported 4,204,999.20 tons of sugar in October 2025, a 13% year - on - year increase. India has allowed 150 tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. Guangxi sugar mills are about to start crushing, but the weather may affect sugar content [2][25]. Pulp Market As of October 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The steam consumption of a thermal power plant in Baoding decreased, and the operating rate of household paper decreased [28]. Double - offset Paper Market In October 2025, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, down 1.38 percentage points from last month, and the decline rate narrowed month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market In September 2025, Australia's cotton exports were about 17.5 tons, down 4.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. As of the end of October, the industrial and commercial cotton inventories increased [30][31][32]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 9159, up 1.32% [31]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9585, down 0.05% [31]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5475, up 0.33% [31]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4870, down 0.04% [31]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13580, unchanged [31]. Spot Market Review - Apples were at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.55 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Jujubes were at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Sugar was at 5760 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan month - on - month and down 560 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was at 5500 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 720 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 450 yuan year - on - year [37]. - Cotton was at 14844 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan month - on - month and 494 yuan year - on - year [37]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information provided other than figures. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 109, expected to oscillate downward, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [58]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 340, expected to oscillate within a range, with a strategy of staying on the sidelines [58]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 70, expected to oscillate, with a strategy of staying on the sidelines [58]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is 0, expected to fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [58]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary information provided other than figures. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples have 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [85]. - Jujubes have 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [85]. - Sugar has 7663 warehouse receipts, up 281 month - on - month and down 4140 year - on - year [85]. - Pulp has 223997 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and down 157654 year - on - year [85]. - Cotton has 3294 warehouse receipts, up 281 month - on - month and up 168 year - on - year [85]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information provided other than figures.
生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20251112
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-11-12 06:23