Group 1: Research Views - On November 11, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.54%. The open interest decreased by 10,544 lots to 271,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,692 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 230 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 51,930 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.5%. The open interest increased by 12,494 lots to 138,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon feedstock was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock was also 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region significantly reduced production. However, due to the synchronous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm was not achieved. Silicon plants prematurely supported prices and held stocks, and the futures market priced in the production cut expectations in advance, limiting the upward price repair space [2]. - In November, the production schedules of polysilicon feedstock and downstream silicon wafers both declined. The planned production cut scale of silicon feedstock exceeded that of the downstream, but under the strict quota limit of silicon wafers, the production cut rhythm was ahead of the upstream. As the impact of the polysilicon production capacity platform news faded, the short - term weak reality led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. Due to the reconvening of the industry conference and the active dynamics of the production capacity platform, there was a positive effect from the news side for polysilicon, so it was not advisable to overly short the market [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 9,290 yuan/ton on November 10 to 9,180 yuan/ton on November 11, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The price of the near - month contract decreased from 9,305 yuan/ton to 9,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and regions remained unchanged, and the spot discount narrowed from 355 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [3]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 176 tons to 46,079 tons on a daily basis. The weekly inventory at GFE decreased by 5,365 tons to 230,900 tons, and the weekly inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 55,000 tons. The weekly factory inventory decreased by 3,700 tons to 264,700 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [3]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 53,720 yuan/ton on November 10 to 51,930 yuan/ton on November 11, a decrease of 1,790 yuan/ton. The price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,935 yuan/ton to 50,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, and the spot premium widened from 1,065 yuan/ton to 1,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly inventory at GFE increased by 0.8 tons to 29.55 tons, the weekly factory inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 27.69 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 27.7 tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of raw rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton, while the price of 107 glue remained unchanged at 11,800 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules [14][16][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][23][25]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of SHFE, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of SHFE in 2016 [37]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [37]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [38].
工业硅、多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 12 日）-20251112
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-11-12 06:25