招银国际每日投资策略-20251112

Company Analysis - Hesai Technology (HSAI US) reported a robust performance in Q3 2025 with total revenue reaching 795.4 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 47%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.4% [2] - The non-GAAP net profit was 288 million RMB, while the adjusted net profit, excluding one-time gains from an early-stage tech investment, was 140 million RMB [2] - The management raised the 2025 GAAP net profit guidance to 350-450 million RMB from the previous 200-350 million RMB, reflecting optimism about business growth [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,696, up 0.18% for the day and 33.08% year-to-date [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39% to 4,003, with the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.47% to 2,518 [2] - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks was 4.467 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, China Mobile, and CNOOC [4] Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations of a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in December and two interest rate cuts totaling 20 basis points next year [4] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high, driven by the Senate's approval of a budget bill to end the government shutdown, which is expected to reduce policy uncertainty [4] - U.S. economic data showed a decline in private sector employment by 45,000, marking the largest drop in two and a half years, contributing to a decrease in the dollar index [4] Industry Insights - China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is expected to see further valuation uplift due to nearly full capacity utilization of its aluminum production and stable raw material costs, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts by 4-5% for 2025-2027 [5] - Hongteng Precision (6088 HK) reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for AI products and automotive business, leading to a record gross margin of 23.5% [5] - The target price for Hesai Technology has been set at 26.7 USD, based on a 5.3x sales multiple for 2026, reflecting a 10% premium over industry peers due to its competitive advantages and strong revenue growth prospects [5]