尿素早评20251112：区间震荡-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Although the fourth export quota of urea has boosted the recent market sentiment, the volume of 600,000 tons is not large compared to the current urea supply. The futures price has declined slightly in the past two days. However, the export quota is beneficial to alleviating the domestic supply - demand pressure, and the winter storage of urea in the fourth quarter will gradually start across the country, so the urea price is supported [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Price - UR01 closed at 1,640 yuan/ton on November 11, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from November 10; UR05 closed at 1,717 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.87%); UR09 closed at 1,738 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.97%) [1] Domestic Spot Price - Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on November 11 compared to November 10, while the price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.62%) [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 107 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 77 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Cost - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Price - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.02% and 1.20% respectively), the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1,660 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,662 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,636 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,640 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,648 yuan/ton, and the position was 254,037 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Stop the loss of the short put option of the 12 - contract [1]