PX&PTA&PR早评-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given reports 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On November 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.04 per barrel, up 1.51% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, up 1.72%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan on November 10 was $582.25 per ton, up 0.09%. The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea on November 11 was $698.50 per ton, down 0.29%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port on November 10 was $828.33 per ton, up 0.61% [1] - PTA: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,648 yuan per ton, down 1.19%; the settlement price was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,600 yuan per ton, up 0.11%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,604 yuan per ton, up 0.22%, and the external price index was $620 per ton, up 0.32% [1] - PX: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,756 yuan per ton, down 1.40%; the settlement price was 6,796 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,556 yuan per ton, unchanged. The PXN spread on November 10 was $246.08 per ton, up 1.86%, and the PX - MX spread was $129.83 per ton, up 5.70% [1] - PR: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,696 yuan per ton, down 1.18%; the settlement price was 5,738 yuan per ton, up 0.10%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,760 yuan per ton, up 0.17%, and in the South China market was 5,800 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - Downstream: On November 11, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,550 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, unchanged; the index of polyester FDY68D was 7,100 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the index of polyester FDY150D was 6,900 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; the index of polyester chips was 5,630 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5,760 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - On November 11, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 76.31%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 89.70%, unchanged; the bottle chip factory load rate was 75.16%, down 1.39%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On November 11, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 54.35%, up 4.35 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 41.02%, down 25.58 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 50.16%, down 32.69 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos is under maintenance, and the restart date is to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment is scheduled for maintenance on November 7 [2] PX Analysis - Important Information: The news that the U.S. Senate passed the first - stage vote of the agreement to end the shutdown improved market sentiment, and the oil market was boosted. The CFR China price of PX on November 11 was $821 per ton. The international oil price fluctuated strongly, squeezing the cost - side support of PX. Domestic PX devices were operating relatively stably, but there was an expectation of slowdown in demand, and the market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [2] - Long - Short Logic: There was no unexpected news, and the fundamentals were operating steadily. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,756 yuan per ton (-0.62%), with an intraday trading volume of 282,000 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, domestic factories could maintain the PX load effectively. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. The recent market was significantly disturbed by rumors. The 8.7 - million - ton PTA device put into production this year promoted the annual destocking of PX, which supported PX significantly. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to the demand - side feedback [2] PTA Analysis - Long - Short Logic: The cost side remained stable. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,648 yuan per ton (-0.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 628,800 lots. The crude oil and PX markets showed weak upward momentum. The PTA spot was abundant, the downstream rigid demand was stable, the spot market fluctuated narrowly, and the basis was relatively stable. Many PTA device maintenance plans were carried out as scheduled, and the industry had long expected them. Due to the continuous low processing fees, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, but there was no unexpected reduction in supply. The domestic demand market was gradually weakening, but the recent inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable [2] PR Analysis - Important Information: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was between 5,710 - 5,820 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side quotations were mostly stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness was cautious, with general market trading atmosphere [2] - Long - Short Logic: Following the cost trend, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,696 yuan per ton (-0.63%), with an intraday trading volume of 31,000 lots. The supply - side operating rate was adjusted slightly, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream terminal purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the attitude was cautious [2]